Japan Summit 2012

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December 13th 2012
  • Hotel Okura, Tokyo

40年後の日本。一見したところ、そこに広がるのは輝かしい未来とはいえない。

2050年、4割近くの日本国民は、65才以上の高齢者。社会保障制度や経済成長にとって、大きなマイナス要因といえる。アジアにおける競争も激化していることだろう。中国のみならず、多くの人口を抱え、急ピッチで成長を遂げるインドネシアといった東南アジア諸国の台頭も予期される。経団連のシンクタンクは、適切な改革が実行されなかった場合、40年もたたないうちに日本が先進国から転落する恐れがあるという見通しを明らかにしている。気候変動の懸念もある。日本を囲む環境問題は深刻化し、環境負担が少ない新たなエネルギー源の模索はより難航することが危惧されている。必要となるダイナミックな意思決定は政治リーダー達に託されるが、今の議会制民主主義の下でそれが実現できるのか、と不安が広がる……。

ただこのような難題を抱えるのは、日本だけではない。ザ・エコノミストが最近発刊した『Megachange: The World in 2050』は、アジア太平洋地域に世界経済の基軸がシフトする中、人類に迫り来る大きなチャレンジと機会を浮き彫りにしている。高齢社会、エネルギーの安全保障、台頭する中国に関する問題…。日本は世界が抱える主要な課題の多くの最前線に立っている。

つまり、日本が面しているのは「逆境という名の機会」なのかもしれない。あくなき改善努力を惜しまない産業革新の精神、高度な技術力、質の高い労働力、未だ眠る莫大な貯蓄。これらは、逆境の中でも繁栄しうる日本の可能性を示している。エネルギー問題や高齢社会に向けた新たなアプローチの創造において世界をリードし、貿易やセキュリティ面などで太平洋コミュニティの柱となることもできるかもしれない。

日本が秘める可能性を活かすには、将来図が必要だ。本年度のジャパンサミットは、政府関係者や企業経営者など国内外のステークホルダーを招き、日本の将来図を明確化すると同時に、世界が迎える激動の時代に向けて日本の優先事項を明らかにする。

 

Looking into Japan’s future, at first glance the next 40 years do not look bright. By 2050, nearly 40% of the country will be over 65 years old, putting enormous pressure on the pension and healthcare system, and diminishing economic growth. Competition in Asia will have grown not just from China, but from other fast-growing, heavily populated countries in the south-east, such as Indonesia. Unless there is meaningful reform, the research institute at Keidanren reckons that Japan could have fallen out of the club of rich nations by 2050. Climate change is likely to exacerbate the environmental problems facing Japan, as will the hunt for new, cleaner sources of energy. Political leaders will be charged with making dynamic decisions, and there are doubts as to whether Japan’s current version of parliamentary democracy is capable of that.
 
Japan is not alone in facing big questions ahead. As the axis of the world economy shifts towards the Asia-Pacific, Megachange: The World in 2050, one of The Economist’s recent publications, explores the huge challenges and opportunities on the horizon. Japan is on the front line of many of the key issues that lie ahead: ageing, energy security and the rise of China, to name a few. But Japan can also turn the future to its advantage. Its relentless spirit of industrial innovation, its technological expertise, its bright workforce and its enormous wealth provide it with the capacity to thrive in adversity. It can give lessons to the rest of the world on how to create new approaches to energy and ageing. It can become a pillar of the new Pacific community, in terms of both trade and security. To achieve that, it needs to map out a vision of where its future lies. This year’s Japan Summit aims to help it do that, drawing on perspectives from around the world, as well as from Japanese political, business and academic elites, to explore the priorities for the dramatic decades ahead. 

プログラム案
(Please click here for English version) 

8:00am

受付


8:45am


開会の辞

The Economist 東京支局長　ヘンリー・トリックス

9:15am日本とメガチェンジ：2050年の世界を見据えた挑戦

ザ・エコノミスト刊行『Megachange: The World in 2050』（2050年の世界 英『エコノミスト』誌は予測する）は、世界に迫り来る幾つかの大きな変化を明らかにしている。日本は、中国を隣国に持つだけでなく、人口・エネルギー問題など世界が抱える主要な課題の最前線に立っている。日本にとって、メガチェンジが持つ意味とは？またこれらのチャレンジに対応し、明るい未来を創造する力を備えた若い世代を育む教育を確保するカギとは？

  • メガチェンジ：2050年の世界（プレゼンテーション）
  • 岐路に立つ日本：安全保障や経済再生等の難題と日本はいかに向き合うべきなのか？
  • 明日の世界を創造する人材：教育セクターの優先事項

 司会：The Economist Banyanコラムニスト　サイモン・ロング
 『Megachange: The World in 2050』 共同著者　ジョン・アンドリュース
慶応義塾大学　塾長、商学部教授　清家篤
東京証券取引所グループ　代表執行役社長　斉藤惇
慶應義塾大学大学院　メディアデザイン研究科　教授　石倉洋子
明治大学 国際日本学部 客員教授、双日総合研究所　防衛・安全保障チーム　
上席客員研究員　谷口智彦

10:15am 休憩

10:45am


日本政治——リーダーシップと国民

冷戦時代後、日本の政治システムは少しずつ変化を遂げている。だが、方向性を持って進んでいるという具体的な証拠を政治家達は未だ示さない。日本は２大政党からなる民主主義に留まるのか、あるいは独裁政治に走るのだろうか？将来的な政策の優先順位とは？建設的な政治討論の促進という役割をメディアが果たすには、どのようなステップが必要となるのか？直接民主制を通じて、有権者は日本の将来について今よりも大きな影響力を及ぼすことができるのか？
    

  • 2大政党制：妥当な体制？
  • 民主主義の深化を阻むメディアの壁とは？
  • 日本政治の未来：議会制 対 大統領制
  • 有権者の声をより反映するには

司会：The Economist 東京支局長　ヘンリー・トリックス
新潟県立大学　学長・理事長、東京大学　名誉教授　猪口孝
ユーラシア・グループ　参与　奥村準
日本政策学校　代表理事　金野索一

 

11:35am

エネルギーの未来

原発事故後、エネルギー政策の方向性の1つとして浮上したのが、再生可能エネルギーへのシフトだ。だが短期的に注力されているのは、天然ガスの買付と原発の信頼回復に向けた政府の切羽詰まった取り組みだ。原発は、日本の将来を担うエネルギーとして、復活できるのか？エネルギーセクターの規制緩和を進めて、エネルギービジネスを活性化するカギとは？この時節をとらえ、省エネ技術のパイオニアとして再び世界をリードすることができるだろうか？

  • エネルギーのベストミックス：合意は形成できたのか？
  • 再生可能エネルギー：ビジネスとしての潜在的可能性
  • さらなる省エネ化：カギとなるステップとは

司会： The Economist 東京支局長　ヘンリー・トリックス
デンマーク王国在日大使館　公使参事官　大使館副代表　イェスパー・トムセン
学習院大学　特別客員教授　八田達夫
レイサム・アンド・ワトキンス法律事務所　所長　ジョセフ・ビバッシュ
多摩大学大学院　教授、元内閣官房参与　田坂広志

12:20pm昼食

1:30pm

 
スペシャル企画
大震災からの道のり：未来に向けた道標？

大震災から教訓を得ることに日本が成功しているとすれば、東北は新しい取り組みを発信する地となりうる。高齢化が進むコミュニティは、革新的な変化を遂げることができるのだろうか？東北の地において、規制緩和と地方分権は大幅な進展を見せるのか？当セッションでは、大震災からの道のり・復興プランから、日本が描く将来図を模索する。

  • 3/11からの道のり：どこまで来た？
  • 希望の兆し: 復興最前線からの展望
  • 震災後の変化：現状維持 対 変化を求める勢力
  • 考葬 巨大都市と村・集落：未来に向けたインフラ；高齢社会とコミュニティ・イノベーション；治安の確保

司会：The Economist Banyanコラムニスト　サイモン・ロング
作家・東京都副知事 猪瀬直樹
復興庁　統括官　岡本全勝
日本総合研究所　調査部　主席研究員　藻谷浩介
東北復興新聞 発行人 本間勇輝

 
2:20pmブリーフィング——日本経済の展望

The Economist  x スペシャルゲスト
   
司会：The Economist 東京支局長　ヘンリー・トリックス
JPモルガン証券　マネジングディレクター　イェスパー・コール
21世紀政策研究所 研究主幹、慶応義塾大学 教授　鶴光太郎
 
3:00pm 休憩

3:30pm


日本産業界の未来像：メガファーム、それとも起業家集団？

日本の産業界が向かう未来とは、いかなるものか。巨大企業が率いる、グロ−バルなハイテク産業なのか？それとも、日本は起業活動を活性化する方法を見つけだし、外国資本を活用し、新たなビジネスの世界を切り開くのか？日本は、カスタマイズ製造におけるパイオニアだ。The Economistが「第３次産業革命」と呼ぶ革命をリードするのだろうか？女性や海外人材を取り入れるのか、それとも機械が労働力の要となるのか？高齢化が日本の労働力にもたらす変化とは……？

  • 新たな産業革命: 製造業者は戻るのか？
  • グローバルな労働力：ようこそ、全てのジェンダー・人種!
  • 起業文化とリスク
  • 21世紀ネットワーク時代、新たなビジネス文化

司会：The Economist 東京支局長　ヘンリー・トリックス
チームラボ　代表　猪子寿之
大塚ホールディングス　代表取締役社長 兼 CEO　樋口達夫
ボストンコンサルティンググループ　日本代表　水越豊
   

4:20pmスペシャル企画 2013年とその後の日本
総選挙パネルディスカッション『新政府と日本、そして世界』
   
「ねじれ国会」の解消や景気回復、近隣諸国との関係改善、貿易自由化推進の是非など、新政府を待ち受けるのは数々の難題だ。本セッションでは、日本・海外のエキスパートを招き、12月16日に予定されている総選挙後の日本の展望及び新政府が取り組むべき優先事項について意見交換を行う。

  • 総選挙の行方：エキスパートによる選挙結果・連立政権の予測
  • 総選挙は日本に変化をもたらすことができるのか? あるべき変化の方向性とは?
司会：The Economist 東京支局長　ヘンリー・トリックス
上智大学国際教養学部　教授　中野晃一
日本再建イニシアティブ　理事長　船橋洋一
「Shisaku（blog）」 著者　マイケル・チュチェック

5:10pm総括
『Megachange: The World in 2050』 共同著者　ジョン・アンドリュース

5:20pmカクテルレセプション

 



Draft Programme

8:00am

Registration and coffee


8:45am


Chairman’s welcome

Henry Tricks, Tokyo Bureau Chief, The Economist

9:15am

Megachange: The World in 2050

The Economist’s Megachange: The World in 2050 lays out the challenges the world faces in the decades ahead. But what do they mean for Japan, which has first-hand experience of some of the emerging demographic and energy issues, as well as living on the doorstep of a rising China? How can Japan educate its young to successfully tackle the challenges ahead and build a brighter future? 

  • Megachange by John Andrews, Co-editor of Megachange: The World in 2050
  • Japan’s place in Asia and the world: National security
  • Japan’s economy: is there a solution?
  • Educating the youth of today to create tomorrow’s world
Moderator: Simon Long, Banyan Columnist, The Economist
John Andrews, Co-editor of Megachange: The World in 2050
Atsushi Seike, President and Professor of Labor Economics, Keio University
Atsushi Saito, President and CEO, Tokyo Stock Exchange
Yoko Ishikura, Professor, Graduate School of Media Design, Keio University
Tomohiko Taniguchi, Visiting Professor, School of Global Japanese Studies, Meiji University, Senior Guest Fellow, Defence and Security Team, Sojitz Research Institute


10:15amNetworking coffee break

10:45am


Japan’s politics: Leadership and followership

Japan’s political system has been slowly changing since the Cold War, but politicians give little tangible evidence they know where it is heading. Will Japan stick with two-party democracy, or shift more towards autocracy? What are future policy priorities? How can the media engender constructive political debate? Can the public have a stronger say in Japan’s future, via direct democracy? 

  • Is a two-party system suitable for Japan?
  • Presidential or parliamentary politics?
  • Does the media hinder Japanese democracy?
  • How to make voters speak out


Moderator: Henry Tricks, Tokyo Bureau Chief, The Economist
Sakuichi Konno, Managing Director, Japan School of Policy Making
Takashi Inoguchi, President, University of Niigata Prefecture
Jun Okumura, Counselor, Eurasia Group
Sakuichi Konno, Managing Director, Japan School of Policy Making

11:35amThe business of energy

Some see the best energy policy after the nuclear disaster as a focus on renewables. But the immediate response is a global search for more natural gas, as well as a desperate effort by the government to rebuild faith in nuclear power. Can nuclear energy once again become a part of Japan’s future? How can Japan deregulate the energy sector to promote entrepreneurship? How can it become a pioneer of energy-saving technologies, as it has been in the past? 
  • The best mix for Japan: Have we found one?
  • Renewables: The business potential
  • Nuclear regulation
  • Power saving
*Short presentation in the TED style planned
   
Moderator: Henry Tricks, Tokyo Bureau Chief, The Economist
Jesper Thomsen, Deputy Head of Mission, Royal Danish Embassy
Joseph Bevash, Office Managing Partner, Latham & Watkins
Tatsuo Hatta, Visiting Professor, Gakushuin University
Hiroshi Tasaka, Professor, Graduate School of Tama University, Former Special Advisor to the Prime Minister

12:20pmLuncheon
1:30pm

Special feature
Tohoku milestones: A blueprint for the future?

Plans for rebuilding after the 2011 disaster provide a glimpse of what kind of future Japan envisages for itself. Can ageing communities reinvent themselves? Will deregulation and decentralisation flourish in the north-east? If Japan learns the right lessons from the disaster, Tohoku could be the breeding ground for a spirit of experiment in the country at large.  

  • Japan after the 3/11 disaster: How far have we come?
  • Silver lining: Viewpoints at the forefront
  • Force of status quo versus force of change: Has anything changed?
  • The megalopolis and the village: Infrastructure for the future; innovations for an ageing society; and safety

Moderator: Simon Long, Banyan Columnist, The Economist
Naoki Inose, Writer, Vice Governor, Tokyo Metropolitan Government
Masakatsu Okamoto, Director-General for Reconstruction Policy, Reconstruction Agency
Kosuke Motani, Chief Senior Economist, Economist Department, Japan Research Institute
Yuki Homma, Representative, Rising Tohoku Newspaper

2:20pm

Economic briefing

*Short presentation in the TED style planned
Moderator: Henry Tricks, Tokyo Bureau Chief, The Economist
Jesper Koll, Managing Director & Head of Japanese Equity Research, JP Morgan
Kotaro Tsuru, Project Leader, 21st Century Research Institute, Professor, Graduate School of Business and Commerce, Keio University  

3:00pmNetworking coffee break

3:30pm


Mega-firms or mini-champs

What is the future of corporate Japan? Is it high-tech, globalised industry, led by today’s behemoths, or will Japan find a way to promote entrepreneurialism, embrace foreign capital and reshape the world of work? Japan was a pioneer of customised manufacturing; will it now lead the way in what The Economist calls the Third Industrial Revolution? Can it encourage women and foreigners into the workforce, or will machines replace people? And how will ageing reshape the workforce?

  • The next industrial revolution: Will manufacturers come back home?
  • A globalised workforce, all genders and races welcome
  • Risk and the cult of the entrepreneur 
  • A new business culture for the networked 21st century

*Short presentation in the TED style planned

Moderator: Henry Tricks, Tokyo Bureau Chief, The Economist
Toshiyuki Inoko, Chief Executive Officer, teamLab
Tatsuo Higuchi, President and Representative Director, CEO,
 Otsuka Holdings
Yutaka Mizukoshi, Co-Chairman-Japan, Senior Partner & Managing Director, Boston Consulting Group

 

4:20pm

Special feature
All change? Japan in 2013 and beyond
Pre-election discussion—what will a new government mean for Japan and the outside world?

The session brings together veteran foreign observers with Japanese experts to discuss the outlook for Japan after the December 16th elections. It will look at the formidable challenges that face a new administration, from ending parliamentary gridlock to reviving the economy to improving relations with neighbours to making vital decisions on free trade. 

Reading the tea leaves: expert predictions on the outcome of the election, and the potential coalitions that may emerge afterwards
Will this election change Japan? If so, in what way should Japan change?  

Moderator: Henry Tricks, Tokyo Bureau Chief, The Economist
Koichi Nakano, Professor, Political Science, Sophia University
Yoichi Funabashi, Chairman, Rebuild Japan Initiative Foundation
Michael Cucek, Author, Shisaku blog, Research Associate, MIT Center for International Studies
Experts invited

5:10pmSpecial concluding remarks
by John Andrews, Co-editor of Megachange: The World in 2050

5:20pmNetworking cocktail reception

 

Normal 0 false false false MicrosoftInternetExplorer4 カクテルレセプション

Henry Tricks, Tokyo Bureau Chief, The Economist

Henry Tricks is The Economist's bureau chief in Tokyo, covering Japan and North and South Korea.

Simon Long, ‘Banyan’ Columnist, The Economist

Simon Long took up this post, based in Singapore, in August 2010. Before that, he had worked in London for four years, as the magazine’s Asia editor, and for four years prior to that as South Asia bureau chief based in Delhi.

David McNeill, Writer, The Economist, Tokyo

David McNeill writes for The Economist and other publications, including the London Independent and The Irish Times newspapers. He is the co-author of the just-published Strong in the Rain, an account of Japan's March 11, 2011 disaster.

Naoki Inose, Writer, Vice Governor, Tokyo Metropolitan Government

Naoki Inose serves as vice governor of Tokyo Metropolitan Government. He was appointed to his current position in 2007 upon request from then governor of Tokyo Shintaro Ishihara and became the first civilian to take on the post.

John Andrews, Co-editor of Megachange: The World in 2050, The Economist

Until moving back to London in November 2006, John Andrews was The Economist’s most experienced foreign correspondent.

Masakatsu Okamoto, Director-General for Reconstruction Policy, Reconstruction Agency

Masakatsu Okamoto currently serves as director-general for reconstruction policy at the Reconstruction Agency.

Atsushi Saito, President and Chief Executive Officer, Tokyo Stock Exchange

Atsushi Saito is president and CEO of the Tokyo Stock Exchange Group. He was appointed to this post in June 2007.

Kosuke Motani, Chief Senior Economist, Economist Department, Japan Research Institute

Kosuke Motani currently serves as chief senior economist at the Japan Research Institute.

Jesper Koll, Managing Director & Head of Japanese Equity Research, JP Morgan

Jesper Koll has been researching and investing in Japan since becoming a resident in 1986.

Atsushi Seike, President and Professor of Labor Economics, Keio University

Atsushi Seike became the president of Keio University in 2009.

Kotaro Tsuru, Project Leader, 21st Century Research Institute, Professor, Graduate School of Business and Commerce, Keio University

Kotaro Tsuru is a professor at Keio University, Graduate School of Business and Commerce.

Joseph Bevash, Office Managing Partner, Latham & Watkins

Joseph Bevash is recognised as one of Asia’s leading international project finance lawyers.

Tatsuo Hatta, Visiting Professor, Gakushuin University

Tatsuo Hatta is a visiting professor of economics at Gakushuin University and professor emeritus at Osaka University.

Tatsuo Higuchi, President and Representative Director, CEO, Otsuka Holdings

Tatsuo Higuchi currently serves as president, representative director and CEO at Otsuka Holdings.

Yoichi Funabashi, Chairman, Rebuild Japan Initiative Foundation

Yoichi Funabashi is chairman of the Rebuild Japan Initiative Foundation. At the start of his career, he joined the Asahi Shimbu in 1968.

Jesper Thomsen, Deputy Head of Mission, Royal Danish Embassy

Jesper Thomsen has 15 years of experience in international affairs, as a diplomat and as a researcher. Prior postings include Pakistan, Macedonia and Burkina Faso, where he worked for both the European Union and Denmark.

Hiroshi Tasaka, Professor, Graduate School of Tama University, Former Special Advisor to the Prime Minister

Hiroshi Tasaka became a professor at Tama University in Tokyo in 2000. In that same year, he founded SophiaBank, a think-tank that supports social entrepreneurs.

Koichi Nakano, Professor, Political Science, Sophia University

Koichi Nakano is a professor in political science at Sophia University.

Toshiyuki Inoko, CEO, teamLab

Toshiyuki Inoko is CEO of Tokyo-based TeamLab. He is also creative industry private-sector expert for Cool Japan, a project by the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry.

Takashi Inoguchi, President, University of Niigata Prefecture

Professor Takashi Inoguchi is the president of University of Niigata Prefecture and Professor Emeritus, University of Tokyo.

Michael Cucek, Author, Shisaku blog, Research Associate, MIT Center for International Studies

Michael Cucek is a research associate with the MIT Center for International Studies and an independent political analyst.

Yoko Ishikura, Professor, Graduate School of Media Design, Keio University

Yoko Ishikura is a professor at the Graduate School of Media Design of Keio University. Her expertise is in global business strategy, competitiveness, innovation and global talent.

Yutaka Mizukoshi, Co-Chairman-Japan, Senior Partner and Managing Director, Boston Consulting Group

Yutaka Mizukoshi is a co-chairman of Boston Consulting Group in Japan and also serves as senior partner and managing director.

Sakuichi Konno, Managing Director, Japan School of Policy Making

Sakuichi Konno is representative director of the Japan School of Policy Making, established in 2011 to nurture political leaders who can promote new styles of managing the nation.

Yuki Honma, Representative, Rising Tohoku Newspaper

Yuki Honma is the representative of Rising Tohoku, a bilingual newspaper issued for those involved in the recovery process of the areas affected by the Great East Japan Earthquake.

Tomohiko Taniguchi, Visiting Professor, School of Global Japanese Studies, Meiji University

Tomohiko Taniguchi, Visiting Professor, School of Global Japanese Studies, Meiji University, Senior Guest Fellow, Defence and Security Team, Sojitz Research Institute

Jun Okumura, Counselor, Eurasia Group

Since 2006, Jun Okumura has been a counsellor for Eurasia Group, where he provides insight and guidance to the research team on Japanese politics. He comments regularly in print and broadcast media on Japanese politics and international relations.

Supporting sponsors:
 

 

British American Tobacco Japan is part of the world’s second largest quoted tobacco group by global market share, with brands sold in around 180 markets.

With more than 200 brands in our global portfolio, we make the cigarette chosen by one in eight of the world’s one billion adult smokers. As a group, we hold robust market positions in each of the regions and have leadership in more than 50 markets.



 

Over the last 75 years Latham & Watkins has grown into a full-service international powerhouse with more than 2,000 attorneys in 31 offices across the US, in Europe, the Middle East and Asia.  With that growth, we have built internationally recognized practices in a wide spectrum of transactional, litigation, corporate and regulatory areas.  Latham’s experienced guidance in a range of matters around the globe offers clients the highest quality legal representation.

 

Associate sponsor:
 

Wahl & Case helps the world's most innovative firms attract people who want to change the world. We have disrupted the recruitment industry in Japan by setting a new standard for service, and we're continuing to innovate as we expand together with our clients worldwide. Our award-winning team helps companies hire in Tokyo, San Francisco, and beyond. To find out more, please visit www.wahlandcase.com.

 

Academic sponsor:
 

The McGill MBA Japan, offered by McGill University's Desautels Faculty of Management, is the leading MBA program in Japan. The two-weekends-per-month format allows students to complete a top flight MBA, taught by McGill's own professors from Montreal, while continuing to work full time. For details, please visit www.mcgill.ca/desautels/programs/mbajapan

 

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All change? Japan in 2013 and beyond 

Pre-election polling—what will a new government mean for Japan and the outside world?

Final polling results will be presented at Japan Summit.

Please view photos from Japan Summit 2012:

Get the flash player here: http://www.adobe.com/flashplayer

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