China Summit 2011

主席致辞

麦杰思，《经济学人》杂志北京分社社长 

讨论：中国经济

牛熊之争

中国将在10年内成为世界最大的经济体，但是中国的征途仍然坎坷。根据中国宏观规划蓝图“第十二个五年计划”，中国将从投资拉动型经济向消费拉动型经济转型。增长速度将无可避免地放缓。而在中国转型之际，它必须同充满泡沫的地产市场、地方政府无度支出可能造成的债务危墙、以及不断攀升的通胀角力。目前中国是全球经济增长前景最明朗的国家之一，但它能否处理好未来5到10年可能拖累其增长的种种挑战？ 

• 中国在“十二五”计划结束时将呈现怎样的局面？ 
• 有关中国增长将低于9%的说法已司空见惯，但如果低于7%会怎样？ 
• 中国领导人正如何治理不断攀升的通胀？民众对食品价格及油价升高的不满究竟是猜测还是现实？ 
• 利率是否上涨过快？利率的攀升是否将抑制个人消费及家庭支出？ 

李稻葵，中国人民银行货币政策委员会委员，中国与世界经济研究中心主任，清华大学经济学教授，北京中关村科技园区管委会副主任

研讨组成员：

黄益平，新兴亚洲市场部 总裁兼首席经济学家，巴克莱(Barclays Capital)  

葛艺豪，龙洲经讯董事总经理  

Patrick Chovanec，清华大学经济管理学院副教授 

Paul Schulte，建银国际证券有限公司财务战略与亚洲银行研究部全球总监 

主持人：许思涛，经济学人信息部全球预测中国区主管 

茶歇

讨论：领导人换届

世界翘首以待

中国更为年轻的新一代领导人将于2012年继任。这是十年内中国领导层最大的一次洗牌。新任领导人将面临低增长和社会问题方面前所未有的挑战，需要做出重大决定。很难预料这将给世界带来怎样的影响，但中国领导人换届必将在中国国内和全球层面带来相应变化。

• 中国领导人换届是否将改变中国的政策重点？
• 中国是否将继续其经济自由化进程？ 
• 中国领导人变更是否将影响地缘政治格局？ 
• 中国政府及民众间的力量均衡将如何演变？ 

研讨组成员： 

鲍瑞嘉，加州大学洛杉矶分校政治学荣休教授，

ChinaPol论坛创始人 

金灿荣，中国人民大学国际关系学院副院长 

墨儒思(Russell Moses)，北京中国研究中心教务长 

主持人：麦杰思，《经济学人》杂志北京分社社长

讨论：中国的人口红利

人口红利时代结束了? 

在中国政治和经济转型之际，

中国长期以来被视为劳动力优势的庞大人口结构正出现影响深远地变化。青年劳动力是以往增长的强劲引擎，如今这一群体的规模正在缩小；工资压力正在上升。我们应该担心吗?

• 商业领袖应如何面对不断加大的工资压力？ 
• 在未来几年中，超过50%的中国人口将在城市定居。就业市场是否能满足需求？ 
• 中国已向其快速老龄化的民众承诺将构建一个社保网络，它能否做到？ 

• 人口结构变化将如何影响农村土地政策以及城市房地产的市场需求？

研讨组成员：

冯建强，仲量联行大中华区董事总经理

蔡昉，中国社会科学院教授，人口与劳动经济研究所所长，第十一届全国人大常委会委员 

欧高敦(Gordon Orr)，麦肯锡公司亚洲董事长 

主持人：麦杰思，《经济学人》杂志北京分社社长 

午宴 

嘉宾访谈:  骆家辉

全球最重要的双边关系——中美关系——将如何演变?

骆家辉，美国驻华大使

主持人：Charles Goddard，经济学人信息部亚太区编务总监 

讨论：中国的世界地位

影响力日益增强？

中国强烈关切其在亚太区的领土主张，这给其邻国带来了一定担忧。中国也在扩大国防开支，建立一支蓝水海军。这是否是中国外交政策及行为模式发生转变的信号？

• 关于中国模式与西方模式相对优劣的争论日益激烈，这对全球有何重要意义？中国是否正在挑战西方民主秩序？
• 中国的经济增长将如何影响亚太地区的安全？ 

研讨组成员： 

沈丁立，复旦大学美国研究中心主任、教授

Andrew Erickson，美国海军战争学院副教授，哈佛大学费正清中心副研究员 

查道炯，北京大学国际关系学院教授，与人合著有《Building a Neighborly Community: Post Cold War China, Japan, and Southeast Asia》一书 

杰拉奇，伦敦城市大学全球政策研究中心中国项目负责人，浙江大学高级研究员

主持人：Charles Goddard，经济学人信息部亚太区编务总监 

茶歇 

嘉宾访谈：

中国跨国公司走出去 

外界对在华跨国公司所知甚多，但对中国活跃的跨国公司却很少听说，而后者正快速扩大其海外投资的深度与广度。中国国内巨头正在成为未来的全球巨头吗？

• 中国在海外投资的环境如何？中国企业做好冒险的准备了吗？国际标准和企业实践将改变中国企业，还是中国企业将改变世界

王烁，财新传媒主编，《新世纪》周刊主编

仲雷，复星集团总裁助理、国际发展部总经理 

施正荣，无锡尚德电力董事长兼首席执行官 

James Miles, Beijing Bureau Chief, The Economist

Discussion: China’s economy

Bulls and bears debate

China is on its way to becoming the world's largest economy in a decade. But storm clouds are appearing. Under the 12th Five-Year Plan, the state's macro-planning blueprint, China will transition from an investment-led to a consumption-led economy. Slower growth is inevitable. While China rebalances it must also grapple with a bubbly property market, a potential wall of debt incurred by reckless local government spending and rising inflation. For now China is one of the world's brightest prospects for growth. How will it manage challenges that could slow its economic momentum in the next five to ten years?

• Where will China be at the end of its 12th Five-Year Plan?
• Growth falling under 9% is a commonly discussed scenario, but what happens if growth drops below 7%?
• How are Chinese leaders managing rising inflation? Is discontent over rising food and oil prices a looming threat?
• Could interest rates rise too quickly? Could they hold back private consumption and household spending?

Opening remarks:

Li Daokui, Advisor, Monetary Policy Committee, People's Bank of China (PBOC), Director, Center for China in the World Economy (CCWE), Chair of Finance Department, School of Economics and Management, Tsinghua University 

Panellists: 

Huang Yiping, Managing Director and Chief Economist, Emerging Asia, Barclays Capital
Arthur Kroeber, Managing Director, Dragonomics
Patrick Chovanec, Associate Professor of Practice, School of Economics and Management, Tsinghua University
Paul Schulte, Global Head of Financial Strategy and Asia Banks Research Division, CCB International Securitites

Moderator: Xu Sitao, Director, Global Forecasting, China, Economist Intelligence Unit

Refreshment break

Discussion: Leadership transition

A world in waiting

A new, younger generation of leaders will take the helm in 2012 to run China. It is the biggest shuffle in the country's leadership in a decade. And the new leaders, faced with slower growth and mounting social challenges, need to make huge decisions. The world is unsure what to expect, but it is certian that China's leadership transition will have huge ramifications at home and abroad.

• Will China’s leadership changes lead to a shift in policy priorities?
• Will China continue along its path of economic liberalisation?
• How will China’s leadership transition tilt the geopolitical landscape?
• How will China’s relationship with its citizens evolve?

Panellists:

Richard Baum, Emeritus Distinguished Professor of Political Science, University of California, Los Angeles, Founder, ChinaPol
Jin Canrong, Deputy Dean, School of International Studies, Renmin University
Russell Moses, Dean, The Beijing Center for Chinese Studies

Moderator: James Miles, Beijing Bureau Chief, The Economist

Discussion: China’s demographic dividend

Has the pay-out ended?

Against the backdrop of China's political and economic transition, the country's enormous population, long-known as a labour advantage, is undergoing a profound transformation. The supply of young workers, which has helped fuel growth, is dwindling. Wage pressures are increasing. Should we worry?

• How should business leaders respond to wage pressure?
• Very soon 50% of China's population will be city-dwellers. Will the rapid pace of urbanisation continue? 
• China has pledged a social safety net to its rapidly ageing population. Can it deliver?
• How will the population transfer affect rural land policy and demand for urban real estate?

Panellists:

KK Fung, Managing Director, Greater China, Jones Lang LaSalle
Cai Fang, Director, Institute of Population and Labor Economics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences

Gordon Orr, Chairman, Asia, McKinsey & Company

Moderator: James Miles, Beijing Bureau Chief, The Economist

Luncheon

In conversation with: Gary Locke

How is the world’s most important bilateral relationship—between the US and China—evolving?

Gary Locke, United States Ambassador to China 

Moderator: Charles Goddard, Editorial Director, Asia Pacific, Economist Intelligence Unit

Discussion: China’s place in the world

Increasingly assertive?

 
China loudly proclaims its territorial interests in the Asia-Pacific, which stirs concern among its neighbours. It is also increasing military spending and building up a blue-water navy. Does this signal a shift in China's foreign policy and global behaviour?

• How important for the world is the growing debate over the relative merits of a "China model" versus a Western One? Is China challenging the Western democratic order?
• How will China's growth affect security in the Asia-Pacific region?

Panellists:

Shen Dingli, Deputy Director and Professor, Center of American Studies, Fudan University

Andrew Erickson, Associate Professor, US Naval War College, Associate in Research, Fairbank Center, Harvard University

Zha Daojiong, Professor of International Political Economy, School of International Studies, Peking University, Co-author, Building a Neighbourly Community: Post Cold War China, Japan, and Southeast Asia

Michele Geraci, Head of China at Global Policy Institute, London Metropolitan University, Senior Research Fellow, Zhejiang University

Moderator: Charles Goddard, Editorial director, Asia-Pacific, Economist Intelligence Unit

Refreshment break

Stream 1: 

Discussion: China’s financial foundation

Flash of brilliance, by accident or design?

As the financial crisis continues to roil Western economies, China is still growing quickly. But with a blurry line between the state and the banks, and the murkiness of banking and financial institutions' inner plumbing, some observers have doubts. Has China's response to the crisis stored up problems for its financial system?

• A lending binge in 2009 kept China’s economy booming after the financial crisis—but could it be swamped by rising bad debt?
• What is the potential cost of bailing out China’s banks? How can banks reform interest rates without creating turmoil in the system?
• Are capital market opportunities opening in China? What is driving this opening? What is holding it back?
• Democratic capitalism and its adherents in the last few decades have dominated the global stage and governed the world order. In the aftermath of the global financial meltdown, is China’s state-led capitalism model worth a rethink?
• Is the internationalisation of the yuan gaining momentum?
• How is the US dollar’s hegemony as a global currency being challenged?

Panellists: 

Xiao Geng, Director of Research and Senior Fellow, Fung Global Institute
Gene Huang, Chief Economist and Vice President, FedEx Express
Fred Zuliu Hu, Founder and Chairman, Primavera Capital Group, Former Partner, Managing Director and Chairman, Greater China, Goldman Sachs
David Dollar, Economic and Financial Emissary to China, United States Treasury Department

Moderator: Simon Cox, Asia economics correspondent, The Economist

Stream 1:

Discussion: Bamboo capitalism

The State. Its entrepreneurs. A billion consumers.

Competition for market share is increasingly fierce at home and abroad among Chinese companies. Private enterprises have developed strongly but remain shut out of some sectors. State-owned enterprises (SOEs) have huge political and economic clout and are becoming more innovative and internationalised.

• How does the balance of power and influence between SOEs and private firms shape the competitive landscape in China?
• What will the role of the state in the next 5-10 years? Will market liberalisation continue? How does the state impede market competitiveness?
• How do China's dynamos of entrepreneurship succeed in a tilted landscape? What are their challenges?

Panellists:

Stream 2:

In conversation with: Foreign MNCs in China

Lust, caution?

The debate about the risks and rewards of China is an endless one. Foreign MNCs are increasing investment. Many are profitable and optimistic about operations over the next five years. But these same respondents to foreign business climate surveys also say China is getting more cumbersome to deal with. The financial and regulatory costs of doing business in China are increasing across the board. Some say China is becoming protectionist and opaque in its commercial practices.

• Can foreign firms afford to say no to China's market opportunities?
• Is China becoming less open to foreign business? 

Panellists:

Rajeev Singh Molares, President, Asia Pacific, Alcatel-Lucent
Shane Tedjarati, President and Chief Executive Officer, Honeywell China and India
Robert Poole, Vice-President, US-China Business Council
Jiang Weiming, President, DSM China

Moderator: Charles Goddard, Editorial Director, Asia-Pacific, Economist Intelligence Unit

Stream 2:

One tough question: Has China found the right balance of state and market in its agenda for the environment?

Alan Beebe, Director, China Greentech Initiative (CGTI)
Xiao Geng, Director of Research and Senior Fellow, Fung Global Institute
Jonathan Watts, Author, When a Billion Chinese Jump: How China Will Save the World - or Destroy It?, Asia Environment Correspondent, The Guardian

Moderator: James Miles, Beijing Bureau Chief, The Economist

In conversation with: Chinese MNCs in the world

The outside world knows of foreign multinationals in China but hears far less about China’s vibrant multinationals, which are rapidly expanding the depth and breadth of investments abroad. Are China’s domestic titans on their way to becoming tomorrow’s global giants?

• What is the climate for Chinese investment abroad? Are Chinese firms ready to take the plunge? Will international standards and corporate practice change Chinese business, or will Chinese business change the way the world works?

Panellists:

Wang Shuo, Managing Editor, Caixin Media and Caixin Century
Patrick Zhong, Head of Global Investment and Strategies, Fosun Group
Shi Zhengrong, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Suntech Power

Moderator: Rob Gifford, China Editor, The Economist