The Bellwether Series: South Korea 2011

Registration and refreshments

Chairman’s remarks

Charles Goddard, Editorial Director, Asia-Pacific, Economist Intelligence Unit

Opening: The perspective from the Financial Services Commission

Developments in South Korea’s financial sector and key policies for the year ahead

Kim Seok Dong, Chairman, Financial Services Commission (FSC), South Korea

Moderator: Charles Goddard, Editorial Director, Asia-Pacific, Economist Intelligence Unit 

Economist Intelligence Unit discussion: Asia among global economies

Pernicious problems from sovereign debt to lackluster growth have darkened Western markets. Asia is crucial to the world economy now. But as the Western world revives and shifts weighting to Asia, many of Asia's banks and institutions are still developing regulatory structures to keep pace with rapid growth. South Korea's globally-integrated economy has been resilient in the past, but global and domestic roadblocks from inflation to household debt loom large among investor, consumer, and policymaker minds.

• What should policy goals be in addressing recent global shocks?
• How will Asia-Pacific economies and sectors sustain their economic trajectory in a weakened global environment?
• What happens if China's growth slows?
• Will South Korea's economy continue flourishing? Is it entering a phase of slowing growth? 

Discussion panellists:
Steve Lackey, Chairman, Asia Pacific, BNY Mellon
Tom Byrne, Senior Vice President, Regional Credit Officer, Asia & Middle East, Sovereign Risk Group, Moody's
Woong Park, Chief Executive Officer, Hong Kong, Mirae Asset Global Investments

Presenter and Moderator: Ross O'Brien, Director, Hong Kong, Corporate Network, Economist Intelligence Unit 

In conversation with: The Bank of Korea

Jun Il Kim, Deputy Governor and Chief Economist, The Bank of Korea

Moderator: Henry Tricks, Tokyo Bureau Chief, The Economist 

Networking break

Panel discussion: Currencies, South Korea's won

Recent global turmoil has weakened South Korea's won substantially. As a globally integrated economy, the nation is highly exposed to volatilities within the global market, and exchange rate stability is a primary policy concern. Is a reprise of 2008-a potential currency crisis-on the horizon?

• What does a weak dollar and unstable Euro mean for South Korea?
• How will the nation be impacted by currency movements in Asia?
• How are South Korea's leaders managing exchange rate stability? What are broader regional implications of South Korea's currency agenda?
• What is the outlook for the won?

Discussion panellists:
Subir Lall, Divison Chief, Mission Chief for Korea, International Monetary Fund

Tim Condon, Chief Economist, Asia, ING Commercial Bank

Jeong Young-sik, Research Fellow, Samsung Economic Research Institute

Sang Kee Min, Professor of International Business, Seoul National University

Moderator: Henry Tricks, Tokyo Bureau Chief, The Economist 

Luncheon 

Keynote: Bahk Jaewan , Minister of Strategy and Finance

Minister of Strategy and Finance, Bahk Jaewan, opens the afternoon with his perspective on South Korea's challenges and policies amid global uncertainties.

Bahk Jaewan, Minister of Strategy and Finance, Republic of Korea

Chairperson: Charles Goddard, Editorial Director, Asia-Pacific, Economist Intelligence Unit 

Panel discussion: South Korea's financial landscape

The state of South Korea's financial sector and regulatory environment is worrisome. On the policy front, it is not clear if privatisation and M&A transactions are going to develop in the near future. On the regulatory front, political transition may lead to a financial sector reform impasse. How should regulators manage stresses moving forward? What are the short, medium and long-term implications?

• Is the financial sector caught in a period of political intransigence?
• Several bank merger deals have been stalled, calling into question South Korea's commitment to the privatisation process. Will policy reform continue? Where are privatisation, savings and loan, and mergers and sell off policies heading in the near and long term?
• How are small businesses being supported in a landscape dominated by conglomerates?
• How does labour tensions impede growth of the financial service sector?
• What role do foreign institutions play? Are they maintaining confidence in South Korea's financial landscape to keep investing and expanding?

Discussion panellists:
Jong-Goo Yi, Senior Foreign Attorney, Kim & Chang
Park Je Yeong, Chief Operating Officer, Korea Exchange Bank
Michael Hellbeck, Chairman, Foreign Bankers Group Korea, Chief Operating Officer and Head of Regulatory Affairs, Standard Chartered Korea and Standard Chartered First Bank
Daniel Tudor, South Korea Correspondent, The Economist

Moderator: Charles Goddard, Editorial Director, Asia-Pacific, Economist Intelligence Unit 

Networking break

Special feature: Risks on the horizon

Beyond Asia's positive economic outlook, the pursuit of growth could expose South Korea to new risk scenarios, such as rising inflation, bad debt, bank solvency issues asset bubbles, and labour challenges. What will be the biggest risks for investors in 2011 and 2012, and how should they plan?

• What are South Korea’s potential bubbles?
• Are debt levels sustainable over the next five years? Should we worry about household debt?
• South Korea’s banks: Are they capable of absorbing losses from bad loans? Are they too big to fail?

Risk-spotter:
Young Sun Kwon, Managing Director and Senior Korea Economist, Nomura International

Moderator: Ross O'Brien, Director, Hong Kong, Corporate Network, Economist Intelligence Unit 

Panel discussion: Financial services innovation—the next wave

Innovation is essential for financial services markets to thrive. Yet in the wake of global post-crisis regulatory tightening, Asia’s growth, and a more competitive environment, is fostering greater depth and breadth of innovative financial services in Asia. What is the landscape for innovative companies in Asia and South Korea?

• Will post-crisis regulation limit the ability of Asia’s financial institutions to innovate, and it will it restrict the opportunity for growth?
• Does South Korea need more innovative service models? Should it find new channels to serve the domestic market?
• How does South Korea’s approach to innovation compare with its regional competitors?

Discussion panellists:

Ahn Hyo Joon, Head of Global Equities and Fixed Income Division, National Pension Service (NPS), Republic of Korea

Benjamin Rudd, Chief Global Strategist, Ping An of China Asset Management (Hong Kong) Company Limited

Sung Woo Park, Executive Vice President & Head of Investment Banking, Samsung Securities

Moderator: Ross O'Brien, Director, Hong Kong, Corporate Network, Economist Intelligence Unit 

Panel discussion: South Korea among Asia: What’s next?

As Asia’s role among the global economy and its financial system deepens, regional competition is increasingly fierce. From Singapore to Hong Kong, Shanghai to Seoul, leading international financial hubs in Asia-Pacific seek to defend or develop status. How is South Korea poised to capitalise on the rebalancing of the global economy towards Asia’s emerging markets?

• How is Asia influencing the global financial services landscape? Where will it be the next five years, or ten years from now?
• How will South Korea’s banks and financial institutions assert their place in this increasingly competitive environment?
• Are regulatory and structural enablers in place for South Korea to grow in the next few years, and in the next decade?

Discussion panellists:

Kihwan Kim, Chairman, Seoul Financial Forum

Jang-Yung Lee, Former Senior Deputy Governor, Financial Supervisory Service (FSS)

Moderator: Henry Tricks, Tokyo Bureau Chief, The Economist 

Concluding remarks 

Henry Tricks, Tokyo Bureau Chief, The Economist

Ross O’Brien, Director, Hong Kong, Corporate Network, Economist Intelligence Unit

Daniel Tudor, Korea Correspondent, The Economist     

Cocktail reception