The Bellwether Series: China 2011

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June 23rd 2011

Le Royal Meridien, Shanghai, China

More than 150 participants from market regulators, policymakers and business leaders in the financial arena gathered at the inaugural China edition of the Bellwether Series event held on June 23rd 2011 in Shanghai, debating the future of finance in Asia and the shape of the country’s post-crisis financial system.

Tu Guangshao, vice mayor of Shanghai, provided opening remarks on Shanghai’s progress as an emerging financial hub. His remarks set the stage for a provocative keynote speech by Liao Min, director general of China Banking and Regulatory Commission (CBRC) in Shanghai, China’s key financial regulatory authority. Other highlights include discussions examining RMB internationalisation, China’s regulatory and business climate, and investment opportunities in the year ahead.

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Programme (Drafted) 以下提供中文日程

Conference Chairs:

Tom Easton, Asia Business Editor, The Economist

Xu Sitao, Director, China, Economist Corporate Network and Global Forecasting, Economist Intelligence Unit, Chief Representative, China, The Economist Group

8.00am	Registration and Refreshments
8.50am	Welcome Remarks Xu Sitao, Director, China, Economist Corporate Network and Global Forecasting, Economist Intelligence Unit, Chief Representative, China, The Economist Group
9.15am	Keynote opening speech The Director General of CBRC in Shanghai will provide an update on developments in China's financial sector and key policies for the year ahead. What role do China's exchanges play locally and as regional trading platforms? What policy steps are needed to realise Shanghai's plan of becoming an international financial centre by 2020? Presenter: Liao Min, Director General, China Banking Regulatory Commission (CBRC), Shanghai Moderator: Xu Sitao, Global Forecasting Director, Economist Intelligence Unit
9.45am	Economist Intelligence Unit: Scenario briefing 2010 marked a year of broad recovery from the financial crisis. Emerging markets appeal to investors, as growth lags in advanced economies, but risks undoubtedly remain. In a new survey, Economist Intelligence Unit will analyse and present the views of investors about the sources and prospects for economic growth over the next year. Balancing GDP growth vs inflation—how will China grow if they get it wrong? At what point would increased food prices bring about unrest? What if energy prices continue to soar? Oil at 140US$—could the Chinese economy survive this? Presenter: Duncan Innes-Ker, Senior Editor, Economist Intelligence Unit Moderator: Xu Sitao, Global Forecasting Director, Economist Intelligence Unit
	New finance for new China The state sector still dominates the financing industry, but innovative models are emerging – from capital markets, to small business, right through to the consumer. This 3-part session investigates what is taking place across different institutional levels.
10.15am	Small to medium enterprises What is out there for SMEs and start-ups—how can they get critical finances in China? Discussion panelists: Zhou Ji, President, Hangzhou Uni-Power Group John Law, Principal Banking Specialist, Global Financial Markets, International Finance Corporation (IFC) Zhang Ying, Chairwoman, Shanghai Songjiang Minsheng Village Bank Moderator: Tom Easton, Asia Business Editor, The Economist
11.00am	Networking break
11.30am	Consumer finance Will the consumer finance revolution step-change domestic consumption trends? Discussion panellists: Bao Haiwei, Vice President, 99 Bill Simon Cheng, Deputy General Manager, Retail Lending Department, Bank of Communications Ling Hai, President, Division President, Greater China, MasterCard Worldwide Co-moderator: He Gang, Managing Director, CAIJING Co-moderator: Wu Chen, Senior Editor, Greater China, Eurofinance
12.15pm	The President and Chief Executive Office of Dalian Commodities Exchange will provide an update on current developments and future trends of the commodity futures market. Keynote panellist:Moderator: Wu Chen, Senior Editor, Greater China, Eurofinance Liu Xingqiang, President and Chief Executive Officer, Dalian Commodities Exchange
12.30pm	China’s evolving financial markets: discussion Nicholas de Boursac, Chief Executive Officer and Managing Director, Asia Securities Industry and Financial Markets AssociationChen Jianping, Managing Director, CITIC Securities Liu Xingqiang, President and Chief Executive Officer, Dalian Commodities ExchangeDave Yang, Corporate Controller, McDonald’s China Eurofinance
1.00pm	Lunch
2.00pm	Interview: China's economy and its financial system Carl E Walter, co-author of "Red Capitalism: The Fragile Financial Foundation of China's Extraordinary Rise" Moderator: Tom Easton, Asia Business Editor, The Economist
2.30pm	RMB internationalisation, capital account convertibility and China's outbound ambition Will China take bolder steps towards RMB internationalisation? Facing a mounting USD reserve, what are the Chinese government's policy choices? Will RMB denominated regional trade and finance activities tip the balance of world finance? How to finance China Inc.'s global ambition? Discussion panelists: Xiaoming Chen, Executive Director, Blue Point Capital Partners Chun Chang, Executive Director and Professor of Finance, Shanghai Advanced Institute of Finance (SAIF), Shanghai Jiao Tong University Ivan Chung, Vice President and Senior Analyst, Corporate Finance Group, Moderator: Xu Sitao, Global Forecasting Director, Economist Intelligence Unit Moody’s
3.30pm	Networking break
4.00pm	Chinese real estate: has China's real estate policy failed? The Chinese construction industry is booming as a result of massive state stimulus programmes in infrastructure and housing. Some observers warn that China has a bubble that could burst soon. And yet others argue that the government's aggressive social housing program may help to offset a potential slowdown in market-based residential construction. How much of a danger is the burst of the asset bubble, especially in the real estate sector? Administrative measures vs. market forces: Which is the better policy choice to lead to a soft landing? Reasons of the bubble: Limited investment opportunities? Excess liquidity released by the PBOC in the past two years? Hot money? Discussion panelists: Ronnie C. Chan, Chairman, Hang Lung Properties Michael Klibaner, National Director, Head of Research, China, Jones Lang LaSalle David Wong, Chief Economist, Shui On Land Richard David, Chief Executive Officer, Treasury China Trust Moderator: Mary Boyd, Director, Economist Corporate Network Shanghai, The Economist Group
4.45pm	Foreign investor panel: Opportunities and challenges in the year ahead The drive for more domestic led economies is opening up new opportunities for investors in China. So too are changing consumption patterns and rapid urbanisation. What is the role of foreign institutions to work in China? What is the role of Chinese financial institutions overseas? Is China's regulatory and business climate changing for the better? What are the industries to watch Discussion panelists: Jack Malvey, Chief Global Markets Strategist, BNY Mellon Asset Management Eva Yi, Economist and Strategist, Keywise Capital Management Fredrik Hähnel, General Manager, Merchant Banking, SEB Shanghai Branch Jimmy Chan, Chief Executive Officer, Value Partners Group Moderator: Tom Easton, Asia Business Editor, The Economist
5.30pm	Debate: Where is China's financial industry headed? Discussion panelists: Paul Schulte, Global Head of Financial Strategy and Asia Banks Research Division, CCB International Securities Limited Michael Pettis, Finance Professor, Guanghua School of Management, Peking University Moderator: Tom Easton, Asia Business Editor, The Economist
6.15pm	Concluding remarks Xu Sitao, Global Forecasting Director, Economist Intelligence Unit
6.30pm	Networking Cocktail Reception
大会主席：
谭逸东，《经济学人》中国商业编辑许思涛，中国首席代表, 经济学人集团，经济学人企业组织中国咨询总监及全球预测中国区主管，经济学人信息部
8.00am	签到及茶歇
8.50am	欢迎致词许思涛，全球预测中国区主管，经济学人信息部
9.15am	开幕主题演讲中国银监会上海银监局主任将介绍未来一年内中国金融行业的发展及重点政策的动态。中国的交易所在本土扮演着怎样的角色？作为区域交易平台又扮演着怎样的角色？上海为到2020年成为国际金融中心需要采取哪些政策步骤？演讲嘉宾：廖岷，中国银行业监督管理委员会上海监管局局长
9.45am	经济学人信息部情景简报 2010年许多地区都在从金融危机中复苏。发达经济体的增长滞后，新兴市场则吸引着投资者的目光，但风险无疑仍然存在。在一篇最新调研中，经济学人信息部将分析介绍投资者如何看待未来一年经济增长的资源及前景。经济学人信息部还将带来 “冠军”指数，审视中国增长最快城市的经济指标。平衡GDP增长与通货膨胀——失败会带来什么后果？食品价格的上涨会在哪个节点带来动乱？能源价格如果持续飙升会带来怎样的后果？ 140美元的油价——中国经济能否挺过这一关？主持：林康德，《经济学人》信息部资深编辑主持：许思涛，全球预测中国区主管，经济学人信息部
	新中国，新金融虽然国有经济仍然统治着融资行业，但创新模式正在从资本市场、小型企业以及消费者环节中逐渐兴起。会议这一阶段的三个小节将审视不同体制层面的动态。
10.15am	中小企业脱离对银行贷款的依赖——中小企业及创业者面临着怎样的形势？讨论组成员：周冀，中新力合有限公司合伙创始人及公司总裁张莹，上海松江民生村镇银行董事长罗强, 国际金融公司全球市场首席银行专家主持：谭逸东，《经济学人》中国商业编辑
11.00am	茶歇
11.30am	消费者金融消费者金融革命是否会给国内消费趋势带来跳跃性的变革？讨论组成员：包海威，上海快钱公司副总裁成少勇,交通银行零售信贷部副总经理凌海,大中华区总裁, 万事达卡国际组织共同主持人：何刚《财经》杂志执行主编共同主持：吴晨，Eurofinance 大中华区总编
	中国演变的金融市场：商品大连商品交易所总经理刘兴强将介绍商品期货市场目前发展和未来趋势的最新动态。主题演讲嘉宾：刘兴强，大连商品交易所总经理主持：吴晨，Eurofinance 大中华区总编
12.30pm	中国演变的金融市场：嘉宾讨论讨论组成员： Nicholas de Boursac，亚洲证券业与金融市场协会行政总裁兼董事总经理陈剑平，中信证券董事总经理刘兴强，大连商品交易所总经理杨德志，麦当劳（中国）有限公司财务总监主持：吴晨，Eurofinance 大中华区总编
1.00pm	午宴
2.00pm	访谈：中国经济及其金融体系 Carl E Walter, “红色资本主义:中国崛起的脆弱金融基础”合著者主持：谭逸东，《经济学人》中国商业编辑
2.30pm	激辩中国：人民币国际化、资本账户可兑换，以及中国的全球发展雄心中国是否会向着人民币国际化迈出更大胆的步伐？面对不断增加的美元储备，中国政府有什么样的政策选择？以人民币计价的区域交易及金融活动是否将倾斜世界金融的天平？如何为中国企业的全球发展雄心提供融资？讨论组成员：陈晓明，美国青锋投资有限公司执行董事张春，上海交通大学上海高级金融学院执行院长及金融学教授钟汶权, 穆迪企业融资部副总裁兼高级分析师主持：许思涛，全球预测中国区主管，经济学人信息部
3.30pm	茶歇
4.00pm	中国的房地产业：中国房产政策是否已经破产？由于国家在基础建设及住房上的大规模刺激计划，中国的建筑业正在蓬勃发展。一些观察者警示说中国的泡沫将会迅速破裂，但其他人则认为，政府强势的保障性住房计划可能会协助缓和市场主导型住房建设的潜在放缓趋势。资产泡沫的破裂——尤其在房地产业——具有多大的危险？行政措施与市场力量：哪个是通向软着陆的更好政策选择？泡沫成因：有限的投资机会？中国人民银行在过去两年中造成的流动性过剩？热钱？讨论组成员：陈启宗，香港恒隆地产有限公司董事长 Michael Klibaner，仲量联行中国区总监、中国研究部主管王必光，瑞安房地产有限公司首席经济学家 Richard David，华瑞中国地产信托行政总裁主持：帕玛丽，经济学人企业组织总监，上海
4.45pm	海外投资者小组讨论：未来一年中的机遇和挑战国内主导型经济的增长驱动、变革中的消费模式以及迅速的城市化进程正为在中国投资带来新的机会。海外机构在中国运作的角色是什么？中国金融机构在海外的角色是什么？中国的监管和商业气候是否正在改善？哪些行业值得关注？讨论组成员： Jack Malvey，纽约梅隆全球市场首席策略师 Fredrik Hähnel，瑞典北欧斯安银行上海分行商业银行业务总经理易峘，凯斯博资产管理公司经济学家及策略师陳尚禮，惠理集團行政總裁主持：谭逸东，《经济学人》中国商业编辑
5.30pm	激辩：中国的金融行业朝向何方？讨论组成员：舒伯乐，建银国际证券有限公司金融战略及亚洲银行业研究部全球主管迈克尔佩蒂斯，光华管理学院金融学教授，北京大学主持：谭逸东，《经济学人》中国商业编辑
6.15pm	闭幕致词主持：许思涛，全球预测中国区主管，经济学人信息部
6.30pm	鸡尾酒会

Thomas Easton, Asia Business Editor, The Economist

谭逸东, 中国商业编辑,《经济学人》

Xu Sitao, Director, China, Economist Corporate Network and Global Forecasting, Economist Intelligence Unit, Chief Representative, China, The Economist Group

许思涛，中国首席代表, 经济学人集团经济学人企业组织中国咨询总监及全球预测中国区主管，经济学人信息部

Liao Min, Director-General, China Banking Regulatory Commission (CBRC), Shanghai

廖岷，中国银行业监督管理委员会上海监管局局长

Duncan Innes-Ker, Senior Editor, Economist Intelligence Unit

林康德，《经济学人》信息部资深编辑

Zhou Ji, President, Hangzhou Uni-Power Group

周冀，中新力合有限公司合伙创始人及公司总裁

Eva Yi, Economist and Strategist, Keywise Capital Management

易峘，凯斯博资产管理公司经济学家及策略师

Zhang Ying, Chairwoman, Shanghai Songjiang Minsheng Village Bank

张莹，上海松江民生村镇银行董事长

John Law, Principal Banking Specialist, Global Financial Markets, International Finance Corporation (IFC)

罗强, 国际金融公司全球市场首席银行专家

Bao Haiwei, Vice President, 99 Bill

包海威，上海快钱公司副总裁

Simon Cheng, Deputy General Manager, Retail Lending Department, Bank of Communications

成少勇,交通银行零售信贷部副总经理

Ling Hai, President, Division President, Greater China, MasterCard Worldwide

Guan Guoguang, Chief Executive Officer, 99 Bill

关国光，上海快钱信息服务有限公司行政总裁

He Gang, Managing Director, CAIJING

何刚, 执行主编, 《财经》杂志

Wu Chen, Senior Editor, Greater China, Eurofinance

吴晨，Eurofinance 大中华区总编

Nicholas de Boursac, Chief Executive Officer and Managing Director, Asia Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association

Nicholas de Boursac，亚洲证券业与金融市场协会行政总裁兼董事总经理

Chen Jianping,, Managing Director, Citic Securities

陈剑平, 董事总经理, 中信证券股份有限公司

Liu Xingqiang, President and Chief Executive Officer, Dalian Commodities Exchange

刘兴强，大连商品交易所总经理

Dave Yang, Corporate Controller, McDonald's China

杨德志，麦当劳（中国）有限公司财务总监

Carl E Walter, co-author, "Red Capitalism: The Fragile Financial Foundation of China's Extraordinary Rise"

Carl E Walter, “红色资本主义:中国崛起的脆弱金融基础”合著者

Xiaoming Chen, Executive Director, Blue Point Capital Partners

陈晓明，美国青锋投资有限公司执行董事

Chun Chang, Executive Director and Professor of Finance, Shanghai Advanced Institute of Finance (SAIF), Shanghai Jiao Tong University

张春, 上海交通大学上海高级金融学院执行院长及金融学教授

Ivan Chung, Vice President and Senior Analyst, Corporate Finance Group, Moody’s

钟汶权, 穆迪企业融资部副总裁兼高级分析师

Ronnie C. Chan, Chairman, Hang Lung Properties

陈启宗，香港恒隆地产有限公司董事长

Michael Klibaner, National Director, Head of Research, China, Jones Lang LaSalle

Michael Klibaner，仲量联行中国区总监、中国研究部主管

David Wong, Chief Economist, Shui On Land

王必光，瑞安房地产有限公司首席经济学家

Richard David, Chief Executive Officer, Treasury China Trust

Richard David，华瑞中国地产信托行政总裁

Mary Boyd, Director, Economist Corporate Network Shanghai, The Economist Group

帕玛丽，经济学人企业组织总监，上海

Jack Malvey, Chief Global Markets Strategist, BNY Mellon Asset Management

Jack Malvey，纽约梅隆全球市场首席策略师

Fredrik Hähnel, General Manager, Merchant Banking, SEB Shanghai Branch

Fredrik Hähnel，瑞典北欧斯安银行上海分行商业银行业务总经理

Jimmy Chan, Chief Executive Officer, Value Partners Group Limited

陳尚禮，惠理集團聯席行政總裁

Paul Schulte, Global Head of Financial Strategy and Asia Banks Research Division, CCB International Securities Limited

舒伯乐，建银国际证券有限公司金融战略及亚洲银行业研究部全球主管

Michael Pettis, Finance Professor, Guanghua School of Management, Peking University

迈克尔佩蒂斯，光华管理学院金融学教授，北京大学

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The Bellwether Series: China 2011

SPONSORS

SPONSORS

Thomas Easton, Asia Business Editor, The Economist

Xu Sitao, Director, China, Economist Corporate Network and Global Forecasting, Economist Intelligence Unit, Chief Representative, China, The Economist Group

Liao Min, Director-General, China Banking Regulatory Commission (CBRC), Shanghai

Duncan Innes-Ker, Senior Editor, Economist Intelligence Unit

Zhou Ji, President, Hangzhou Uni-Power Group

Eva Yi, Economist and Strategist, Keywise Capital Management

Zhang Ying, Chairwoman, Shanghai Songjiang Minsheng Village Bank

John Law, Principal Banking Specialist, Global Financial Markets, International Finance Corporation (IFC)

Bao Haiwei, Vice President, 99 Bill

Simon Cheng, Deputy General Manager, Retail Lending Department, Bank of Communications

Ling Hai, President, Division President, Greater China, MasterCard Worldwide

Guan Guoguang, Chief Executive Officer, 99 Bill

He Gang, Managing Director, CAIJING

Wu Chen, Senior Editor, Greater China, Eurofinance

Nicholas de Boursac, Chief Executive Officer and Managing Director, Asia Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association

Chen Jianping,, Managing Director, Citic Securities

Liu Xingqiang, President and Chief Executive Officer, Dalian Commodities Exchange

Dave Yang, Corporate Controller, McDonald's China

Carl E Walter, co-author, "Red Capitalism: The Fragile Financial Foundation of China's Extraordinary Rise"

Xiaoming Chen, Executive Director, Blue Point Capital Partners

Chun Chang, Executive Director and Professor of Finance, Shanghai Advanced Institute of Finance (SAIF), Shanghai Jiao Tong University

Ivan Chung, Vice President and Senior Analyst, Corporate Finance Group, Moody’s

Ronnie C. Chan, Chairman, Hang Lung Properties

Michael Klibaner, National Director, Head of Research, China, Jones Lang LaSalle

David Wong, Chief Economist, Shui On Land

Richard David, Chief Executive Officer, Treasury China Trust

Mary Boyd, Director, Economist Corporate Network Shanghai, The Economist Group

Jack Malvey, Chief Global Markets Strategist, BNY Mellon Asset Management

Fredrik Hähnel, General Manager, Merchant Banking, SEB Shanghai Branch

Jimmy Chan, Chief Executive Officer, Value Partners Group Limited

Paul Schulte, Global Head of Financial Strategy and Asia Banks Research Division, CCB International Securities Limited

Michael Pettis, Finance Professor, Guanghua School of Management, Peking University

SPONSORS

SPONSORS

SPONSORS

SPONSORS

SPONSORS