China Summit 2012

8.45 am

主席开幕致辞
 

齐子道，《经济学人》中国编辑

9.15 am 

主题演讲
中国视角

傅莹、 中华人民共和国外交部副部长

主持人：齐子道，《经济学人》中国编辑

9.45 am 

中国的未来
领导人换届与改革的未来

中国已经完成十年一次的领导层换届。新领导层的人选已广为人知，但换届后的改革方向却是个更加重要的话题。

《经济学人》认为，中国的改革似乎正面对一个巨大的十字路口。对于中国的中、长期发展方向，中国政界最高层及相关利益集团正在激烈博弈。 而在此背景下，来自国内外的经济、社会挑战也日益凸显。为应对挑战，中国需要寻求新的发展模式。新的模式应与全球惯例更为一致，或将非常不同于已经取得成功的模式。中国新一代领导人能否就发展模式和未来达成共识？

• 利益集团：既得利益集团的力量在未来数年将怎样变化？将对改革产生多大影响？
• 国有企业的力量与改革：中国将如何处理国有企业对改革的抗拒？如何管理不断发展壮大的私营部门？
• 腐败：社会稳定对政府至关重要。一些人认为，对腐败的愤怒是社会紧张情绪的最大诱因之一。政府抑制腐败的工作将取得多大的成效？
• 政治改革：政改是否会有突破性进展？公众舆论在决定发展前景方面将有怎样重要的作用？

主持人：麦杰思，《经济学人》北京分社首席记者

10.30 am

茶歇

11.00 am

中国经济既令人敬畏，也让人焦虑。中国经济发展的速度和持续时间均已超过此前亚洲四小龙中的任何一员，而且仍拥有巨大的增长空间。但怀疑论者提出，中国由投资驱动的奇迹般增长没有可持续性。他们认为，如果这种模式持续下去，必将导致新一轮的银行坏账、金融系统受创以及经济急速放缓。

《经济学人》认为，中国采用的经济模式效率低下，但也极富弹性。中国能够承受一定程度的投资浪费，因为其储蓄供应极其充裕。事实上，中国经济模式效率低下的部分原因——过度储蓄、银行国有、政府指令性投资等——也正是在不确定时期经济增长具有弹性的原因。

这一特征表明，中国在今后几年将不会遭遇硬着陆。它面临的问题将是慢性的，而非急性的。但是，随着中国劳动力规模的萎缩和资本的累积，其储蓄率将逐步降低，新的投资机会将变得越来越难以把握，届时中国的经济发展模式将落后于时代的要求。中国的改革者任重而道远。

• 在中国努力重振正在放缓的经济增长之际，我们应从2008年11月开始的刺激政策狂热中吸取哪些教训？
• 中国能否避免落入中等收入陷阱？
• 超快速的增长是社会稳定的保障还是威胁？
• 2030年的中国经济将会怎样？

主持人：可思梦，《经济学人》亚洲经济编辑

研讨组成员：
余永定，中国社会科学院学部委员、中国世界经济学会前任会长
刘培林, 国务院发展研究中心, 发展战略和区域经济研究部副部长
贝塚正彰，日本驻华大使馆财经公使
姚洋， 北京大学国家发展研究院院长，中国经济研究中心主任 
罗兰德，世界银行中国、蒙古和韩国局局长

11.50 am

 以煤炭为主要燃料的中国工业革命带来了高速的经济增长。中国目前是世界最大的能源消费国。但在今后数十年中，中国要实现更为平衡的增长，一种更具创新性的能源结构将必不可少。

首先，它将对中国的社会发展至关重要。对潜在污染的抗议不时挑战领导人引以为傲的社会稳定。其次，随着中国对石油和其它燃料的需求急速增长，关于能源安全的担忧不断加重。经济学人信息部的数据显示，2001年至2011年，中国的能源消费增长了136％。第三，它对商业有利。乐观人士提到了中国的绿色增长目标，以及向全球市场巨头出售“新能源”技术的雄心。

•  中国将如何创新其能源未来？
•  它是否将以对社会负责的、环保的方式满足其能源需求，例如采用清洁煤技术？
•  从气候变化问题政治化到欧洲削减可再生能源补贴，再加上与美国的贸易摩擦——全球能源趋势将如何塑造中国的未来？

主持人：齐子道，《经济学人》中国编辑

研讨组成员：

陈卫东，中国海洋石油总公司能源经济研究院首席能源研究员
杨富强，自然资源保护委员会，中国项目气候、能源与环境高级顾问
倪盛节，壳牌中国勘探与生产有限公司富顺项目总经理
杨爱伦，世界资源研究所高级研究员

12.35 pm

午宴
 

2.00 pm

夸大风险与低估风险同样危险。中国和美国今年已经过领导人换届。这一点之所以重要，是因为许多事情都取决于中美两国能否和睦相处。中美关系对双方都至关重要，灾难性局面将不会出现，但在美国举行大选、中国召开党代会的这一年，两国政府或许都较难采取温和路线。

在双方共同关注的众多问题中，防务是一个战略性关切。美国知道中国领导着世界上最庞大的军事力量。除中国军事力量的规模外，对其意图缺乏了解也令人不安，这对美国可能是不利的。而中国知道，美国在亚洲的军事力量投射——近期被称为“亚洲的战略枢纽”——可能意味着，美国要对中国事务加以干涉——从台湾问题到资源富集的南中国海水域领土争端问题都有可能，这对中国可能是不利的。

• 在奥巴马的第二个任期里，中美关系未来四年将呈现何种态势？
•  两国领导人是否将保持足够团结，以务实地处理中美双边关系？
•  互信对中美两国都有利。双方将可能采取何种行动来培育持续的互信？
•  如何保持两国的坦诚沟通?

对话：骆家辉
骆家辉，美国驻华大使

主持人： Charles Goddard, 经济学人信息部亚太区编辑总监 

研讨组成员：
Jonathan Pollack，布鲁金斯学会约翰桑顿中国中心所长 
包道格，卡内基国际和平研究院，副院长
朱锋，北京大学国际关系学院教授
时殷弘 ， 中国人民大学国际关系学院教授兼美国研究中心主任，国务院参事 

视频参与：
孔杰荣，宝维斯国际律师事务所，合伙人律师，已退休

3.20 pm

全球制造业与创新 
第三次工业革命与中国?

中国是世界上最大的制造业国家，其产值目前占全球制造业总产值的五分之一。但中国经济若想继续繁荣发展，制造商就必须向价值链上游转移——更多地进行创新，做出更好的设计，赚取更高的利润，提供更优质的服务。中国领导人已经清楚这一点。在中国的长期战略计划中，一个雄心勃勃的目标就是：到2020年之前发展成为以创新为导向的国家。

事实证明，中国的制造业和工厂模式是可靠的。然而，正当中国基于这一模式向下一阶段的高附加值制造业发展之时，第三次工业革命已悄然发生。制造业正逐步实现数字化。如同所有的革命一样，这次革命也将对旧有生产模式带来破坏式影响。

未来的工厂将迎来一个新的制造业时代，生产将按客户要求定制，品质更好并交付迅速。

《经济学人》认为，第三次产业革命将不只为企业生产带来变化，还会在其它方面引发重大变革。中国正发生着许多变化。中国制造业的下一阶段将引人关注，但在新的全球制造业版图中，它是否还将如此重要？

• 中国将如何适应第三次工业革命？它是否准备好在其中扮演领袖角色？
• 中国新领导层将如何对此提供支持？
• 对中国创新机器的投入一直在稳步增长。截至目前，其效果如何？
• 中国的服务行业如何发展?

范思接，《经济学人》中国区财经主任，上海区总编辑

研讨组成员：
顾延，百度网首席信息官
高世楫， 国务院发展研究中心, 研究员, 信息中心主任
爱德华•斯坦因费尔德，麻省理工学院中国能源项目组联席主任，政治经济学教授 
黄谦智，小智研发创办人兼总经理

4.10 pm

茶歇

4.40 pm

中国企业走向全世界,  但……
世界是否对中国企业敞开大门？

 几十年来，外国企业在中国蓬勃发展，为其增长提供了动力。如今，中国企业已拥有可投资于世界各地的巨额资金。事实上，在全球经济面临困境的今天，中国资本的注入或许是有帮助的。但有观点指出，中国企业遇到了特殊的挑战，例如中国对外投资的敏感性及其引发的争议。

• 我们应如何消除障碍，为中国在全球的对外投资进一步敞开大门？
• 中国和西方企业应如何建立为双方增加价值的合作关系？
• 西方企业正在如何调整自己的位置，以成为走出国门的中国公司的合作伙伴？
• 一些西方企业把目前的成功归因于早期的巨大失败。中国企业是否做好了在海外遭受失败的准备？

主持人：许思涛，经济学人信息部全球预测中国区主管

研讨组成员：
杨葳，埃森哲管理咨询，大中华区董事总经理，人才与组织绩效咨询服务 
王子龙，中国国际金融有限公司投行部董事总经理
虞健民，中国外运股份有限公司副总裁
黄怒波，中坤集团董事长

5.25 pm

在奉行新闻审查制度的中国，社交媒体仍处于早期发展阶段。但在极短的时间内，社交媒体已经给中国带来巨大变化。微博在制造全国性话题方面展现出影响深远的变革性力量。中国一些十分著名的意见领袖通过社交媒体分享他们的观点，并因此声名远播。

但社交媒体也存在令人忧虑的一面，不仅对中国领导人如此（因为他们必须面对一种全新而不可预测的力量），对整个社会亦是如此。

中国对于社交媒体上的部分内容有着较为严格的审查。虽然中国的一些博客主非常活跃，但也会有有失偏颇的时候。无论怎样，社交媒体已经成为中国民众的公共论坛。

• 社交媒体在中国将有怎样的影响力？
• 领导层换届完成后，中国管理和适应社交媒体的战略将有何变化？
• 移动平台正如何改变微博及其使用者的力量？
• 微信等突破性工具正如何改变人们使用社交媒体的方式？又如何改变政府应对社交媒体的方式？

主持人：艾远征， 《经济学人》驻华记者

研讨组成员： 
邓肯•克拉克，BDA董事长
钱钢，香港大学新闻及传媒研究中心中国传媒研究计划主任
姜家齐，北京大学教授，前创新研究中心前首任主任
洪晃, 中国互动媒体集团首席执行官

6.15 pm

主席致闭幕辞

齐子道，《经济学人》中国编辑

6.20 pm

鸡尾酒招待会 

8.45 am

Chairperson’s opening remarks

Rob Gifford, China editor, The Economist

9.15 am

Keynote opening
The perspective from China

Fu Ying, Vice minister of foreign affairs, Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the People's Republic of China

Moderator:
Rob Gifford, China editor, The Economist

9.45 am

What’s next?
The leadership transition and future of reform

China has undergone its once-in-a-decade leadership change. We now know who the new leaders are. The direction of reform following the transition, however, is a weightier question.

The Economist argues reform in China appears to be at a great crossroads. Political tension may be rife at the highest levels of the Communist Party as its interest groups contend over China’s direction in the medium to long term. Against this backdrop, global and domestic economic and social challenges loom large. To cope, China should seek a different model—one more in step with global norms, perhaps one very different from what has been successful in the past. Will China’s next leaders unite behind the same vision of China’s model and future?

• Interest groups: How will the power of vested interest groups change in the coming years? How big an impact will it have on reform?
• Power of SOEs and reform: How will the party manage SOEs' resistance to reform? How will it manage a growing private sector?
• Corruption: Social stability is of paramount importance to the party. Some say anger over corruption is one of the biggest causes of unrest. How effective will the party be in its efforts to curb corruption?
• Political reform: Will there be breakthroughs, and how important a role will public opinion play in shaping developments?

Moderator:
James Miles, Beijing bureau chief, The Economist

Panellists:
Lu Mai, Secretary general, China Development Research Foundation
Anthony Saich, Director, Ash Center for Democratic Governance and Innovation, Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University
Benjamin Lim, North Asia specialist correspondent, Former Beijing and Taipei bureau chief, Reuters 
Kerry Brown, Executive director and professor of Chinese politics, China Studies Centre, University of Sydney

10.30 am

Refreshment break

11.00 am

China’s economy
Resilient, but infinitely so?

China’s economy inspires awe and anxiety in equal measure. It has grown faster for longer than any of the Asian tigers that preceded it. And it still has plenty of room to grow. But sceptics argue that China’s miraculous, investment-driven development is unsustainable. If it persists, they believe it will result in another wave of bad loans, a crippled financial system and a sharp slowdown.

The Economist argues that China’s economic model is inefficient but also resilient. It can afford to waste some investment, because its supply of saving is so strong. In fact some of the sources of China's inefficiency--captive deposits, government ownership of banks, state-directed investment--are also sources of stability in uncertain times.

This suggests China will not suffer a hard landing in the next few years. Its problems will remain chronic, not acute. But as the country's workforce shrinks and its capital accumulates, its saving rate will fall and new investment opportunities will become more elusive. Its economic model will then become obsolete. China’s reformers have a big job ahead.

• As China tries to revive its slowing economy, what lessons might be learned from the stimulus spree of November 2008?
• Will China be able to steer away from the middle-income trap?
• Is breakneck growth a guarantee of social stability or a threat to it?
• Where will China be in 2030?

Moderator:
Simon Cox, Asia economics editor, The Economist

Panellists:
Yu Yongding, Former president, China Society of World Economics, Academician, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences
Liu Peilin, Deputy director, Department of Development Strategy and Regional Economy, Development Research Center, State Council
Masaaki Kaizuka, Minister for finance, Embassy of Japan in Beijing
Yang Yao, Director, China Center for Economic Research, Peking University
Klaus Rohland, Country director, China, Mongolia and Korea, World Bank

11.50 am

China’s coal-led industrial revolution powered huge economic growth. China now claims the mantle of world’s largest energy consumer. But in the decades ahead, a more innovative energy mix will be necessary for China’s drive towards more balanced growth.

First, it will be key to its social development. Protests against potentially harmful pollution periodically disturb the appearance of social stability so prized by the leadership. Second, energy-security worries have intensified as demand for oil and other fuels has shot up—energy consumption grew by 136% between 2001 and 2011, says the Economist Intelligence Unit. Third, it is good for business. Optimists point to China’s green-growth targets and ambitions to sell “new-energy” technology among global market titans.  

• How will China innovate its energy future?
• Will it meet its energy needs in socially responsible, environmentally conscientious ways, such as cleaner coal technology?
• From climate-change politics, to falling subsidies for renewable energy in Europe, and trade frictions with America—how might global energy trends shape China's future?

Moderator:
Rob Gifford, China editor, The Economist

Panellists:
Chen Weidong, Chief energy researcher, Energy Economics Institute, CNOOC
Fuqiang Yang, Senior adviser, climate change, energy and environment, China program, Natural Resources Development Council
Nick Feast, General manager, Fushun Shale Gas Project, Shell China
Yang Ailun, Senior associate, World Resources Institute

12.35 pm

Luncheon

2.00 pm

Change, China and America
The uncertainty principle

Overstating risks can be as dangerous as underestimating them. Both China and America are changing leaders this year. It matters because much rides on the ability of China and America to get along. The most crucial relationship for each, probably both sides will avoid catastrophe. But in an election and party-congress year, it may be harder for both governments to take a soft line.

Defence is one strategic concern among a long mutual list. America knows China’s party presides over the world’s largest military build-up. Besides the scale of China’s military build-up, the lack of information on intent is disquieting—it could mean bad things for America. China knows America’s power projection in Asia, recently coined its “pivot towards Asia”, could mean potential meddling in China’s affairs, from Taiwan to its territorial clashes in the resource-rich waters of the South China Sea—it could mean bad things for China, too.

• What might the next four years of US-China relations look like under Obama’s second term?
• Will both countries’ leaders remain united enough to manage the US-China bilateral relationship pragmatically?
• Mutual trust is mutually beneficial for both China and America. What actions may each side take to nurture sustained, mutual trust?
• How do we maintain candid communication between the US and China?

In conversation with: Gary Locke
Gary Locke, US Ambassador to China

Moderator:
Charles Goddard, Editorial Director, Asia-Pacific, Economist Intelligence Unit

Panel discussion:
Jonathan Pollack, Senior fellow in foreign policy, Director, John L Thornton China Center, Brookings Institution
Doug Paal, Vice president for  studies, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Zhu Feng, Professor, School of International Studies, Peking University
Shi Yinhong, Professor of international relations, Director of the Center on American Studies, Renmin University

Via video:
Jerome Cohen, Retired partner, Paul, Weiss, Rifkind, Wharton & Garrison

3.20 pm

Global manufacturing and innovation
China within the third industrial revolution?

China is the world’s largest manufacturing power and now accounts for a fifth of global manufacturing. But if China Inc is to continue flourishing, its manufacturers must move up the value chain—with greater innovation, improved design, higher margins and better services. China’s leaders already know this. Ambitious targets to become an innovation-oriented country by 2020 is an important part of the nation’s long-term strategic plan.

But while China is positioning itself towards its next stage of added-value based on tried and true models of manufacturing and factories, a third industrial revolution is under way. Manufacturing is going digital. Like all revolutions, this one will be disruptive to the old way of making things. The factory of the future will adapt to a new age of customised, better products, swiftly delivered.

The Economist argues this third dimension could change not just business, but much else besides. China is shifting much. The next phase for China Inc will be interesting. But will it make sense in a new global manufacturing landscape?

• How will China adapt to the third industrial revolution? Is it positioning itself to play a leading role? 

• How will China’s next leadership support it?
• How is China’s services sector evolving?  
• Input into China’s innovation machine has steadily increased. What is the output thus far? 

Moderator:
Vijay Vaitheeswaran, China business and finance editor, Shanghai bureau chief, The Economist

Panellists:
John Gu, Chief information officer, Baidu
Gao Shiji, Research fellow, Director General of Information Center, Development Research Center, State Council
Edward Steinfeld, Professor of political economy, Director MIT China Program, Massachussetts Institute of Technology
Arthur Huang, Co-founder and Managing director, MINIWIZ

4.10 pm

Refreshment break

4.40 pm

China takes on (not over) the world
But is the world open for Chinese business?

Decades ago foreign firms flourished in China and powered its growth. Decades later Chinese firms have huge amounts of cash to invest in the world. Indeed, Chinese capital injections may help in a troubled global landscape. But Chinese firms are met with peculiar challenges, such as sensitivity and even contentiousness to Chinese outbound investment, some say.

• How do we remove barriers and open the door wider to Chinese outbound investment in the world?
• How can Chinese and Western firms engineer co-operative relationships that add value for both sides? 
• How are Western companies repositioning themselves as partners for Chinese companies going abroad?  
• Some Western firms attribute current success to huge earlier failures. Are Chinese companies ready to fail abroad?  

Moderator:
Xu Sitao, Director, Global forecasting, China, Economist Intelligence Unit

Panellists:
Claire Yang, Managing director, Talent and organization business domain, Accenture Management Consulting, Greater China
Wang Zilong, Managing director, Investment banking department, China International Captial Corporation
Yu Jianmin, Vice President, Sinotrans
Huang Nubo, Chairman, Zhongkun Group

5.25 pm

Social media
Bellwether of China’s future?

Social media is still in its infancy in censored China, but in a short span of time, it has produced remarkable change. Weibo has shown a profoundly transformative power in creating a national discourse. Some of the nation’s best debaters enjoy fame and share their views by way of social media.

But there is a flip side to social media that is worrisome—not only for the Chinese leadership, which must grapple with a new and unpredictable force, but also for society as a whole.

Some things are more rigorously censored than others. China’s bloggers, provocative as they may be, can also be flat wrong. For better or worse, social media functions as a forum for the people.

• What will the impact of social media be in China?
• As the government completes a transition of power, how will its strategy for managing, and adapting to, social media change?
• How are mobile platforms transforming the power of micro-blogs, and of the people using them?
• How are new disruptive tools, like WeChat, changing the way people use social media, and the way the government must respond to them?

Moderator:
Gady Epstein, China Correspondent, The Economist

Panellists:
Duncan Clark, Chairman, BDA China, Senior advisor, China 2.0, Stanford Graduate School of Business
Hong Huang, Microblogger, Chief executive officer, China Interactive Media Group
Qian Gang, Director, China Media Project, University of Hong Kong
John Chiang, Professor and former director, Innovation Research Centre, Peking University

6.15 pm

Chairpersons’ closing remarks
Rob Gifford, China Editor, The Economist

6.20 pm

Networking cocktail reception

“When the history of the late 20^th century is written in a hundred years,” the economist Lawrence Summers observed in 1992, “the most significant event will be the revolutionary change in China.” I think that he’s right—China recently steamed passed Japan, my native country, to become the world’s second largest economy. By the looks of it, China will soon zip past the United States as well.

Following the Lehman Crisis, U.S. GDP marked negative growth while China’s GDP continued to grow at approximately 8% (see graph 1). Even if China grows at only 7% a year, it would still be enough growth for its economy to double in a matter of 10 years. There is little disagreement about whether or not China’s GDP will overtake that of the U.S., the question is “how soon?”

Simon Black
London School of Economics

China's economy will overtake America's within a decade
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Hard for China's economy to surpass the US in a decade
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Matt Hunter
Tsinghua University 

Pettis’ bet is well placed. China will not overtake the US as the world’s largest economy before 2020
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Kuhn Hsu
Tsinghua University

China overtake US in a decade: No willing, no strength and no needs 
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Tang Yanhua
Tsinghua University

China economy can not overtake the America’s in a decade
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Wang Jian
Tsinghua University

China's economy cannot surpass the United States’ economy in a decade
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