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May 30th 2013
- Hotel Okura Tokyo
The Bellwether Series: Japan
Asian finance: Credit where it’s due
Now in its fourth year, The Bellwether Series 2013: Japan will convene strategic finance decision makers including senior policymakers, business leaders and leading thinkers to examine the critical financial challenges facing Asia and in particular Japan.
In 2012, The Bellwether Series: Japan drew an audience of over 150 senior policymakers, institutional investors, heads of banks and financial institutions, senior officials from regulatory bodies in Japan. The programme explored the global financial landscape--Europe in particular--and what it means for Japan's financial restoration. The panels included senior representatives from the IMF, ADB, Financial Times, Chief Economists from Bank of China and Agricultural Bank of China, Japan's banking community and a closing session with Motohisa Furukawa, Minister for National Policy and Minister of State for Economist and Fiscal Policy.
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Motohisa Furukawa, former Minister of National Policy, Government of Japan |
Eisuke Sakakibara, former Vice Minister of Finance for International Affairs, Government of Japan |
Iwan Azis, Head, Office of Regional Integration, Asian Development Bank |
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Financial systems in the Asia-Pacific region deserve credit for their resilience in troubled times. They have weathered America’s fiscal squabbles and Europe’s financial squalls remarkably well. Asia-Pacific lenders, especially from Japan and Australia, have helped to fill the gaps left by retreating euro-area banks. Asian investors are venturing their money elsewhere in the region, helping to knit their economies more closely together. And foreign investors, starved of safe assets, are flocking to the region’s bonds, which were issued in record quantities in 2012.
But the global financial crisis proved that tranquillity is no excuse for complacency. The Asia-Pacific region remains heavily exposed to shifts in global financial sentiment. It must also contend with swings in global regulation, as new rules promulgated in America and Europe begin to pinch elsewhere in the world.
The growing success of Asia-Pacific’s bond markets is a potential worry for the region’s banks, which may respond to the threat of disintermediation by cutting corners or lowering standards. And in venturing overseas, the region’s lenders and investors demonstrate the strength of their balance sheets, but also the paucity of opportunities at home.
The task ahead for Asia’s financial system is to help the region’s economies evolve and diversify, which is different from merely helping them grow. The challenge is to promote new firms and industries, not merely cater to incumbents. Asia needs a financial system that makes better use of the region’s savings in the service of its development—a financial system that, in short, gives credit where it’s due. The Bellwether Series: Japan will explore these issues and what they mean for Japan’s future.
| Download the EIU report on global investor sentiment highlights confidence in Asia-pacific growth |
Download The Economist special report on International Banking |
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(Please click here for Japanese programme) Draft programme | |
8.50 am
| Opening remarks The chairperson will give scene-setting remarks for the day’s discussions. Simon Cox, Asia Economics Editor, The Economist |
9.00 am | In Conversation with: International Monetary Fund |
9.20 am
| The global financial landscape This session will examine the implications of global financial developments for the world and Japan. Global report via video link: Panellists:
Moderator: |
10.05 am
| Safe assets: The collateral crunch Truly safe assets are in short supply around the world. So too is yield. Triple-A assets created by securitisation proved untrustworthy during the financial crisis. The debt of several European sovereigns is now in doubt. Even US Treasuries are hostage to America’s partisan fiscal politics. At the same time, the world’s appetite for safe assets, both as stores of value and as collateral, has rarely been greater. One consequence is razor-thin yields, even in Japan, where gross government debt is more than 200% of GDP. This poses a dilemma for asset managers, who must take greater risks to spice up their returns.
Panellists: Moderator: |
10.55 am | Networking break |
11.25 am
| Finance without borders Financial institutions from Japan, Australia and elsewhere in the region have shown a new willingness to venture overseas. Their balance sheets are strong, their home markets are saturated and euro-area lenders are in retreat. The region’s banks thus have an opportunity to become pan-Asian or even global. But crossborder banking poses challenges of their own.
Panellists: Moderator: |
12.10 pm | Luncheon |
1.20 pm | China: The economic consequences of Mr Li China’s economic policy is now in the hands of a new team, led by Li Keqiang, the prime minister. Unlike most of China’s leaders, Mr Li trained as an economist, not as an engineer. He believes the economy should promote a “harmonious” society, much like the leadership he is replacing. But he has also invited some fresh thinking from outsiders (such as the World Bank) on how to achieve that goal.
Panellists: Moderator: |
2.05 pm | RMB Internationalisation: Preparing for the future of finance The internationalisation of the yuan is already well underway, but do we really understand where it is taking us? A succession of policy tweaks have already added up to a quite significant change in the RMB’s role. How much more is there to come? That will depend on what China is prepared to allow and when—and what the rest of the world then makes of it. Will the RMB become a major reserve currency? Will it loom large on foreign exchange markets? Will RMB assets attract investment flows? China is Japan’s largest trade partner and the destination for much of its direct investment. And yet settlements in RMB only remain a tiny proportion of total transactions between the two countries. This panel will examine the impact of RMB internationalisation on Japan’s economy, businesses and its financial sector.
Panellists: Moderator: |
2.50 pm | Networking break |
3.20 pm | What if…? This session will set aside conventional wisdom and cosy, consensus forecasts to ask some “what ifs”: low-probability, hypothetical scenarios, both good and bad. We will ask panellists Then we will engage the audience in their own assessment of the final scenario. The aim is to encourage key takeaways which can be applied towards business strategy planning. The
Panellists: Moderator: |
4.20 pm
| Special feature: Abenomics When a government policy acquires its own special name, you know that something is different. So what exactly is Abenomics; what has it achieved; and where will it take Japan?
Panellist: Moderator: |
5.15 pm | Closing keynote interview The Deputy Governor of the Bank of Japan will provide an overview, including its monetary policies and blueprint for growth. Hiroshi Nakaso, Deputy Governor, Bank of Japan Moderator: |
5.30 pm | Chairperson’s closing remarks |
6.00 pm | Networking cocktail reception |
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Simon Cox, Asia Economics Editor, The Economist
Simon Cox covers the economies of emerging Asia, including India and China, for The Economist newspaper. He was previously based in Delhi, covering Indian business and finance.
Tamzin Booth, Tokyo Bureau Chief, The Economist
Tamzin Booth is Tokyo bureau chief for The Economist, writing on Japan’s politics, business and economy. She previously covered European business for the newspaper and was based in Paris.
Andrew Staples, Director, Economist Corporate Network, Japan, The Economist
Andrew Staples has been based in Japan (Tokyo, Osaka, Kyoto and Fukuoka) for a cumulative 12 years since the mid-1990s.
Hiroshi Nakaso, Deputy Governor, Bank of Japan
Naoyuki Shinohara, Deputy Managing Director, International Monetary Fund
Katsunori Mikuniya, Former Commissioner, Financial Services Agency and Professor, University of Tokyo
Katsunori Mikuniya is a professor at Todai Policy Alternatives Research Institute at the University of Tokyo. Prior to joining the institute, he was a commissioner of the Financial Services Agency of Japan.
Atsushi Saito, Group Chief Executive Officer, Japan Exchange Group
Yukari Sato, Parliamentary Vice Minister of Economy, Trade and Industry and Member, the House of Councilors
Masahiro Kawai, Dean and Chief Executive Officer, Asian Development Bank Institute
Masahiro Kawai was appointed dean and CEO of the Asian Development Bank Institute (ADBI) in 2007. He was previously special adviser to the ADB president in charge of regional economic co-operation and integration.
Nana Otsuki, Managing Director, Global Research, Bank of America Merrill Lynch
Kurt Woetzel, Chief Executive Officer, Global Collateral Services, BNY Mellon
Hironari Nozaki, Managing Director, Citigroup Global Markets Japan
Hironari Nozaki joined Citigroup as a managing director in 2004. He has been a top-ranked bank analyst by Institutional Investor for ten consecutive years, beginning in 2004 and joined ‘Hall of Fame’.
Naoto Saito, Senior Economist, Daiwa Institute of Research
Atsushi Saito was appointed group CEO of Japan Exchange Group in January 2013, when Tokyo Stock Exchange Group and Osaka Securities Exchange merged.
Martin Schulz, Senior Research Fellow, Fujitsu Research Institute
Ryuji Yasuda, Professor, Graduate School of International Corporate Strategy, Hitotsubashi University
Ryuji Yasuda is a well-known opinion leader and consultant to financial institutions in Japan. He worked in consulting services at A.T. Kearney for about seven years and at McKinsey & Company for more than 15 years as a director.
Koji Sakuma, General Manager and Chief Economist, Institute of International Monetary Affairs
Koji Sakuma has been general manager and chief economist of the Institute for International Monetary Affairs (IIMA) since April 2011. The IIMA was established in 1995, as a non-profit research organisation, with basic capital from the Bank of Tokyo.
Tim Murray, Managing Partner, J Capital Research
Jesper Koll, Managing Director and Head of Japanese Equity Research, JP Morgan
Jesper Koll has been researching and investing in Japan since becoming a resident in 1986. Before re-joining JP Morgan in December 2009, he served as the chief economist of Merrill Lynch Japan for ten years
Kokichi Komagata, Chairman, Kokusai Asset Management
Daisuke Iwase, Co-Founder and Executive Vice President, Lifenet Insurance Company
Shen Jian-guang, Chief Economist, Mizuho Securities Asia
Katsuyuki Tokushima, Chief Investment Advisor of Financial Research Group, Nippon Life Insurance Research Institute
Katsuyuki Tokushima has more than 20 years’ experience in investment for life insurance and pension business. He has broad experience in areas such as asset allocation, fixed-income investment and risk management.
Sadayuki Horie, Senior Researcher, Nomura Research Institute
Sadayuki Horie is a senior researcher at the Nomura Research Institute in Tokyo, the largest think-tank in Japan. Mr Horie has more than 30 years of experience in the financial services industry.
Arvind Subramanian, Senior Fellow, Center for Global Development, Senior Fellow, Peterson Institute for International Economics
Yao Yang, Professor of the National School of Development, Peking University
Junko Nishioka, Chief Economist, RBS Securities
Yoshihiko Miyauchi, Representative Executive Officer, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Orix
Yosuke Tsuyuguchi, Senior Advisory Officer, Shinkin Central Bank
Yosuke Tsuyuguchi has been senior advisory officer of Shinkin Central Bank since April 2011. Prior to assuming this role, Mr Tsuyuguchi worked for the Bank of Japan for 31 years, in such posts as its first chief representative in Beijing.
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BNY Mellon is a global investments company dedicated to helping its clients manage and service their financial assets throughout the investment lifecycle. Whether providing financial services for institutions, corporations or individual investors, BNY Mellon delivers informed investment management and investment services in 36 countries and more than 100 markets. Additional information is available on www.bnymellon.com, or follow us on Twitter @BNYMellon.
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Discussion:
Where will Abenomics take Japan?
Post your comment here. Your views may be addressed at the summit.
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| Standard rate | USD1,500/ JPY 142,500 |
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* Please note that the above listed rates are exclusive of 5% consumption tax. | |
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