The Bellwether Series 2013: Australia

8.45 am

Opening remarks

9.00 am

The global financial landscape, Asia and Australia

This session will examine the implications of global financial developments for the world, Asia Pacific and Australia.

• Global report
• Implications for Asia-Pacific?
• Implications for Australia?

Moderator:
Simon Cox, Asia Economics Editor, The Economist

9.50 am

Central banking: the new lords of finance

The Bank of Japan, the People’s Bank of China and the Bank of England are coming under new management. At the same time, central banks around the world are exercising new powers and entertaining new approaches. Many people believe that central bankers (and only central bankers) have the power to end Japan’s slump, rescue the euro and revive America. Are they right?

• Has the Federal Reserve done too much or too little?
• How can central banks best curb financial speculation and asset bubbles? Should they do so?
• Some monetary authorities have run up impressive hoards of foreign-exchange. How can those reserves be put to more productive use without ruffling any feathers?

Panellists:
Stephen Kirchner, Research Fellow, Centre for Independent Studies
David Murray, Honorary Chair, International Forum of Sovereign Wealth Funds, Former Chair, Future Fund, Former Chief Executive Officer, Commonwealth Bank

Moderator:
Charles Goddard, Editorial Director, Asia-Pacific, Economist Intelligence Unit

10.40 am

Networking break

11.10 am

Bankers without borders

Banks from Japan, Australia and elsewhere in the region have shown a new willingness to venture overseas. Their balance sheets are strong, their home markets are saturated, and euro-area lenders are in retreat. The region’s banks thus have an opportunity to become pan-Asian or even global. But cross-border banking poses challenges of its own.

• Can Asia-Pacific lenders succeed in markets where they lack a strong deposit base?
• How can they overcome cultural barriers?
• Global banks have the advantage of scale; domestic banks have local expertise.
• How can a pan-Asian regional bank compete?

Panellists:
Graham Hodges, Deputy Chief Executive Officer, Australia and New Zealand Banking Group
Winang Budoyo, Chief Economist, CIMB Niaga Bank
Anton Gunawan, Chief Economist, Bank Danamon Indonesia

Moderator:
Charles Goddard, Editorial Director, Asia-Pacific, Economist Intelligence Unit

12.00 pm

China: the economic consequences of Mr Li

China’s economic policy is now in the hands of a new team, led by Li Keqiang, the prime minister. Unlike most of China’s leaders, Mr Li trained as an economist not an engineer. He believes the economy should promote a “harmonious” society, much like the leadership he is replacing. But he has also invited some fresh thinking from outsiders (such as the World Bank) on how to achieve that goal.

What kind of economic policies can we expect from China’s new leadership?
Will the new leaders quicken the pace of financial reform?
Is sub-8% growth a cyclical blip or the new normal?

Panellists:
Kerry Brown, Professor, China Studies Centre, The University of Sydney

Moderator:
Simon Cox, Asia Economics Editor, The Economist

12.50 pm

2.00 pm

The Corporate View: So what?

Everyone agrees that the financial system should serve the "real" (non-financial) economy, helping clients to expand their businesses and hedge their risks. But how well does the financial system live up to that ideal? In this session, managers from a variety of non-financial firms will offer their views of finance. What do they expect from their banks and the broader financial system? What would their ideal bank look like? And how well does the financial system now fulfill their needs?

Panellists:
John Denton, Partner and Chief Executive Officer, Corrs Chambers Westgarth
Sankar Narayan, Chief Financial Officer, Virgin Australia 
Paul Howes, National Secretary, The Australian Workers’ Union

Moderator:
Charles Goddard, Editorial Director, Asia-Pacific, Economist Intelligence Unit

2.50 pm

Networking break

3.20 pm

What if…?
Scenarios for Australia

This session will set aside conventional wisdom and cosy, consensus forecasts to ask some "what ifs". It will examine some low-probability, hypothetical scenarios, both good and bad. The question for the panellists is not "Will this scenario happen?" It is: "What would be the consequences if it did?" These are not outcomes anyone necessarily expects, but they are things for which people should nonetheless prepare. The kinds of scenarios that may be considered include:

• What if…the euro area broke up?
• What if...inflation in China flared up?
• What if...property in Australia crashed?
• For discussion: What does Australia need from its new leadership?

Panellists:
Bill Evans, Chief Economist, Westpac
Mark Thirlwell, Director, International Economy Program, Lowy Institute for International Policy
Paul Kelly, Editor-at-Large, The Australian
Peter Hartcher, Political Editor, The Sydney Morning Herald

Moderator:
Simon Cox, Asia Economics Editor, The Economist

4.10 pm

Australia in the Asian Century

The world economy’s centre of gravity is moving closer to Australia. By 2025, Asia will account for almost half of global GDP, according to the Treasury’s projections. What role will Australia play in the Asian century ahead? To help answer that question, the government published a hefty white paper in October, urging Australian firms and citizens to become “Asia-literate”. In this session, panellists will provide their own views of Australia’s role, with a particular emphasis on its financial links with the rest of Asia.

• What does Australian finance have to offer the rest of Asia?
• What can Australia gain from Asian finance?
• How can bodies like the Export Finance and Insurance Corporation help Australian businesses succeed in Asia?
• What is "Asia literacy"? And can it be taught?

Panellists:
Hugh White, Professor of Strategic Studies, Strategic and Defence Studies Centre, Australian National University
Andrew Leigh, Federal Member for Fraser, Parliament of Australia
Richard Woolcott, Former Head of the Australian Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade, Prime Minister's Special Envoy on Asia Pacific community, Government of Australia

Moderator:
Robert Milliken, Australia Correspondent, The Economist

5.20 pm

Chairperson’s closing remarks

5.25 pm

End programme