The Bellwether Series 2012: Japan

May 16th 2012
  • Hotel Okura Tokyo, Japan

Year three of Economist Conferences' Bellwether Series in Japan drew an audience of 150 of policymakers, regulators, and investors from Japan’s financial sector to examine the opportunities and risks in the shifting financial landscape, within and outside Japan.

This year's programme explored the global financial landscape--Europe in particular--and what it means for Japan's financial restoration. The panels included senior representatives from the IMF, ADB, Financial Times, Chief Economists from Bank of China and Agricultural Bank of China, Japan's banking community and a closing session with Motohisa Furukawa, Minister for National Policy and Minister of State for Economist and Fiscal Policy.

 

Dates of other Bellwether Series event in 2012:

Sydney, Australia – July 12th 2012

Seoul, South Korea – September 4th 2012

Beijing, China – November 16th 2012

View photos from The Bellwether Series: Japan 2012:

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プログラム

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8:10 am

受付


8:45 am

開会の辞

当会議議長による挨拶と会議を通じた討論の全体像の概説

The Economist 東京支局長 ヘンリー・トリックス


9:15 amブリーフィング:グローバル金融の動向

本セッションでは、グローバル金融・アジアにおける金融の最新動向と今後の展望、そして日本の金融業界への影響について検証を行う。

司会:
ザ・エコノミスト・グループ コーポレートネットワーク 日本 ディレクター
ダン・スレーター

青山学院大学 教授 榊原英資
メリルリンチ日本証券 マネージングディレクター 調査部 銀行セクター担当アナリスト(株式・クレジット) 大槻奈那

 

9:55 am

欧米、アジア、グローバル?金融規制と中央銀行のあるべき姿
金融危機の発生以降、金融分野では規制緩和から新たな規制強化へのシフトがみられる。金融当局の役割は拡大し、そのアプローチもより厳格になりつつあり、ある意味でアジア的な性格が強まっているともいえる。もしアジア的な規制が金融規制のあるべき姿を示唆しているとすれば、新たな危機の発生の回避に向けて他の地域が得るべき教訓とは?新たに浮上している金融規制の英知とは?

  • アジアの中央銀行は、融資ブームと資産バブルを抑制することを主眼としたマクロ健全性葬規制に長年取り組み、経験を培ってきた。こういった取り組みにより、金融業界の活性化や収益性・イノベーション力の向上を促進できるのか?
  • 欧州の規制当局は、資本増強と資産圧縮を域内銀行に求めているが、より大きな忍耐力と寛容性をみせるべきか?銀行に厳格な姿勢で対応することは、金融危機を解決する唯一の方法なのか?あるいは事態を悪化させるだけなのか?
  • 銀行の自己資本と流動性に関する新たな規制 バーゼルIIIは、2013年から段階的な導入が予定されている。同規制は、アジアの銀行に適したものか?そしてアジアの銀行は新たな規制を受け入れる準備ができているのか?

司会:The Economist アジア経済特派員 サイモン・コックス

BNYメロン CEO インベストメント マネジメント アジアパシフィック アラン・ハーデン
フィナンシャル・タイムズ 国際金融 主席特派員 へニー・センダー
国際通貨基金 ヨーロッパ部門 アシスタント・ディレクター スビル・ラル
慶応義塾大学 経済学部 教授、 金融庁 金融研究研修センター長 吉野直行

 

10:50 am

休憩


11:20 am

チャイナ・インサイト:中国市場の現状と今後

かつて日本の経済学者は、アジア経済を雁の群れに例えた。日本を先頭に、他のアジア諸国が群れの後ろに続くという考え方だ。実に、これまでの日本の経験から中国は、様々な教訓を得ることができる。楽観的な関係者は、現在の中国を1970年代の日本になぞらえ、今後10〜20年間は同国経済が急速な成長を続けると予想している。一方、悲観的なグループは、中国を数年後にバブルの崩壊を迎える1980年代の日本と比較している。

本セッションでは、中国経済そして市場の現状を検証する。同国のビジネス環境は、日本の金融サービス企業が活躍しやすい環境になってきているのだろうか?中国市場はどのような機会とリスクをもたらすのか?

  • 日本と経済発展:中国は何を学ぶべきなのか?
  • 人民元は円に匹敵する、あるいは凌駕する国際通貨となるのか?
  • 中国の現状:金融システムの成熟度は?市場ギャップはどの分野にあるのか?


司会:The Economist アジア経済特派員 サイモン・コックス

中国農業銀行 チーフエコノミスト 向松祚
中国銀行 チーフエコノミスト 曹远征
ボストン コンサルティング グループ パートナー & マネージング・ディレクター 鄧俊豪

 

12:05 pm

昼食


1:20 pm

対談: アジア開発銀行

アジアにおける金融の未来像

司会:The Economist アジア経済特派員 サイモン・コックス

アジア開発銀行 地域経済統合局長 イワン・アジス

 

2:10 pm

 大いなる成長機会の活用:日系銀行の取り組み
~揺れる欧米金融機関と、アジアにおける需要の拡大~

  • ユーロ危機は日本の金融市場と経済動向にどのような影響を与えるのか?
  • 欧米金融機関とバランスシートの縮小:どのような資産が市場に出回るのか?
  • 日本の銀行はアジア市場でさらなる成功を収める準備が整っているか?
  • 世界におけるM&Aの動向を活用し、企業・顧客価値の向上を実現できるのか?

司会:The Economist 東京支局長 ヘンリー・トリックス

マッキンゼー&カンパニー, ディレクター, タブ・バワーズ
野村證券 エグゼクティブ・ディレクター、 エクイティ・リサーチ部 金融チーム・ヘッド
高宮健

 

2:50 pm

休憩


3:20 pm

討論: ‘X-day’ を迎えないための財政プラン

最近では、日本が ‘X-day’ (不履行に陥る日)を迎える可能性を問う議論から、このリスクをどう回避すべきなのかという問いに焦点がシフトし、当課題は現実性を増してきている。本セッションでは財政エキスパートを招き、財政再建に向けた現行プランの盲点・課題を検証すると共に、デフォルト回避に向けて鍵となる方策について議論する。

  • 経済成長:財政再建にどれほどの効果をもたらすことができる要素なのか?
  • 歳出削減:今、そして今後取り組むべきこととは?
  • 再考:税・社会保障改革
  • 財政再建の政治的側面:有効な政策の実現に向けた戦略とは?

司会: ザ・エコノミスト・グループ コーポレートネットワーク 日本 ディレクター
ダン・スレーター

元財務副大臣 民主党 政策調査会長代理・政策審議会長 櫻井充
自由民主党 シャドウ・キャビネット 官房副長官 林芳正
東京大学大学院経済学研究科・経済学部 教授 井堀利宏

 

4:10 pm

基調対談:日本再活性化への道筋

司会:The Economist 東京支局長 ヘンリー・トリックス

スペシャル・ゲスト:
国家戦略担当 内閣府特命担当大臣(経済財政政策)古川元久
経済同友会 副代表幹事、経済成長戦略委員会 委員長
野村アセットマネジメント 取締役会議長 稲野和利

 

4:50 pm

閉会の辞

The Economist アジア経済特派員 サイモン・コックス
ザ・エコノミスト・グループ コーポレートネットワーク 日本 ディレクター
ダン・スレーター
The Economist 東京支局長 ヘンリー・トリックス

 

5:00 pm 

 カクテルレセプション

 

  
  
  
  
Programme
8:10am

Registration


8.45am

Opening remarks

The chairperson will give brief scene-setting remarks for the day’s discussions.

Henry Tricks, Tokyo Bureau Chief, The Economist


9.15am

On the global financial landscape

This session focuses on recent developments and what’s ahead in the global and Asian financial landscape with implications for Japan.

Eisuke Sakakibara, Professor, Aoyama Gakuin University
Nana Otsuki, Managing Director, Global Research, Bank of America Merrill Lynch

Moderator:
Dan Slater, Director, Corporate Network, Japan, The Economist Group

 

9.55amWestern, Asian or global?

Competing models of financial regulation and central banking

Since the financial crisis, the world has shifted from an era of deregulation to a new era of reregulation. The role of the monetary and financial authorities has become more expansive, more intrusive—in many ways, more Asian. If Asian regulation is on the right course, what can the rest of the world learn to avoid another crisis?
  • Asian central banks have long experience with “macro-prudential” measures, designed to tame credit booms and asset bubbles. Are these measures compatible with a vibrant, profitable and innovative financial industry?
  • Europe’s regulators are forcing their banks to raise capital or shed assets. Should regulators show more patience and forbearance? Is getting tough on the banks the only way to solve a financial crisis—or does it only make things worse?
  • New Basel 3 rules on bank capital and liquidity will start coming into force in 2013. Do these rules suit Asian banks, and are they ready?
Alan Harden, Chief Executive Officer, Investment Management, Asia-Pacific, BNY Mellon
Henny Sender, Chief Correspondent, International Finance, Financial Times
Subir Lall, Assistant Director, European Department, International Monetary Fund (IMF)
Naoyuki Yoshino, Professor of Economics, Keio University

Moderator:
Simon Cox, Asia Economics Editor, The Economist


10.50am

Networking break


11.20amChina insight—state of play?

A Japanese economist once compared Asia’s economies to a flock of geese, flying in formation: Japan led the way; other Asian economies fanned out behind it. China has the opportunity to learn from Japan’s own flight path. Optimists compare China with Japan in the 1970s, when it still had ten to 20 years of rapid growth ahead of it. Pessimists liken China to Japan in the 1980s, a few years before its bubble burst.

The session will evaluate China’s economy, as well as the status of China’s market. Is the business climate becoming warmer for Japan’s financial institutions? What are the risks and opportunities the current state presents?
  • What can China learn from Japan's own experience of development?
  • How is the renminbi evolving as an international currency?
  • Status check: how mature is the financial system; and are there any gaps in the market?
Xiang Songzuo, Chief Economist, Agricultural Bank of China
Cao Yuanzheng, Chief Economist, Bank of China
Tang Tjun, Partner and Managing Director, Boston Consulting Group

Moderator:
Simon Cox, Asia Economics Editor, The Economist


12.05pm

Luncheon


1.20pm

In conversation with: The Asian Development Bank
Looking forward at Asia’s prospects

Iwan Azis, Head, Office of Regional Integration, Asian Development Bank (ADB)

Moderator:
Simon Cox, Asia Economics Editor, The Economist

 

2.10pm

A time of great opportunity: Japanese banks in action
…the retreat of Europe and rising Asian demand

  • How will the euro crisis affect Japan’s financial markets and economic prospects?
  • As European banks trim their balance sheets, what assets might they offer for sale?
  • Are Japanese banks equipped to win in Asia?
  • Can they leverage global M&A ebb and flow, snap up deals and extract value for themselves and their clients?

Tab Bowers, Director, Tokyo, McKinsey & Company
Ken Takamiya Executive Director and Head of Financial Team, Equity Research Department, Nomura Securities

Moderator:
Henry Tricks, Tokyo Bureau Chief, The Economist

 

2.50pm

Networking Break


3.20pm

Debate: Planning against the “X-day” in Japan


This session invites financial experts to elicit shortcomings of the current plans for financial restoration, and establish the key steps to ensure that Japan will not default.

  • Growth strategies—how relevant are they?
  • Spending cuts—what more should be done?
  • Tax and social-security reforms—critical reflection
  • Politics of financial restoration—how to push through good policies

Mitsuru Sakurai, Former Vice Minister of Finance and Deputy Chairman, Policy Research Committee, Democratic Party of Japan
Toshihiro Ihori, Professor, Graduate School of Economics, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo
Yoshimasa Hayashi, Deputy Chief Cabinet Secretary, Shadow Cabinet, Liberal Democratic Party of Japan

Moderator:
Dan Slater, Director, Corporate Network, Japan, The Economist Group

 

4.10pm

Special feature: Reinvigorating Japan—strategic visions

Motohisa Furukawa, Minister for National Policy and Minister of State for Economic and Fiscal Policy, Government of Japan
Kazutoshi Inano, Vice Chairman and Chairman, Committee on Economic Growth Strategy, Keizai Doyukai; Chairman of the Board of Directors, Nomura Asset Management

Moderator: Henry Tricks, Tokyo Bureau Chief, The Economist

 

4.50pm

Closing remarks

Simon Cox, Asia Economics Editor, The Economist
Dan Slater, Director, Corporate Network, Japan, The Economist Group
Henry Tricks, Tokyo Bureau Chief, The Economist


5.00 pm

Cocktail Reception

Simon Cox, Asia Economics Correspondent, The Economist

Simon Cox covers the economies of emerging Asia, including India and China, for The Economist newspaper.

Dan Slater, Director, Corporate Network, Japan, The Economist Group

Dan Slater has spent almost 15 years in Asia covering the region's leading business and economic issues.

Henry Tricks, Tokyo Bureau Chief, The Economist

Henry Tricks is The Economist's bureau chief in Tokyo, covering Japan and North and South Korea.

Motohisa Furukawa, Minister for National Policy and Minister of State for Economic and Fiscal Policy, Government of Japan

Motohisa Furukawa is currently serving as minister for national policy; minister of state for economic and fiscal policy; minister of state for science and technology policy; and minister for space policy.

Eisuke Sakakibara, Professor, Aoyama Gakuin University

Eisuke Sakakibara has been a professor at Aoyama Gakuin University since April 2010. From 1997 to 1999, he was Japan’s vice minister of finance and international affairs.

Iwan J. Azis, Head, Office of Regional Economic Integration, Asian Development Bank

Iwan J. Azis is the Head of the Asian Development Bank’s Office of Regional Economic Integration. He assumed office in September 2010.

Mitsuru Sakurai, Former Vice-Minister of Finance and Deputy Chairman, Policy Research Committee, Democratic Party of Japan

Mitsuru Sakurai currently serves as Deputy Chairman of Policy Research Committee for the Democratic Party of Japan.

Alan Harden, Chief Executive Officer, Investment Management, Asia-Pacific, BNY Mellon

Based in Hong Kong and a member of BNY Mellon Investment Management’s executive committee, Alan Harden is responsible for, strategic, financial and operating plans and business development across Asia-Pacific for BNY Mellon Asset Management.

Subir Lall, Assistant Director, European Department, International Monetary Fund

Subir Lall is Assistant Director in the European Department of the International Monetary Fund, and the Mission Chief for Germany.

Yoshimasa Hayashi, Deputy Chief Cabinet Secretary, Shadow Cabinet, Liberal Democratic Party

Yoshimasa Hayashi currently serves as acting chairman of the Policy Research Council at the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and deputy chief cabinet secretary of the Shadow Cabinet.

Xiang Songzuo, Chief Economist, Agricultural Bank of China

Songzuo Xiang is chief economist at the Agricultural Bank of China. He is also executive deputy director and a senior fellow at the International Monetary Institute of Renmin University of China.

Nana Otsuki, Managing Director, Bank-Sector Analyst, Global Research, Merrill Lynch Japan Securities

Nana Otsuki joined Merrill Lynch Japan Securities in mid-2011, after working as an analyst at UBS for six years.

Cao Yuanzheng, Chief Economist, Bank of China

Cao Yuanzheng is chief economist at Bank of China. Mr Cao joined BOC International (China) in 1998.

Tang Tjun, Partner and Managing Director, Hong Kong, Boston Consulting Group

Tjun Tang is the head of Boston Consulting Group’s financial-institutions practice in Asia. He is an expert in asset management, private banking, custody and securities.

Henny Sender, Chief Correspondent, International Finance, Financial Times

Henny Sender joined the Financial Times in 2007. She is currently the FT’s chief correspondent for international finance and is based in Hong Kong, where she is a permanent resident.

Naoyuki Yoshino, Professor of Economics, Keio University

Naoyuki Yoshino is professor of economics at Keio University. He is also a director of the Institute of Financial Research at Japan’s Financial Services Agency (FSA), a post he has held since 2004.

Tab Bowers, Director, McKinsey & Company

Mr Bowers is a Director in the Tokyo Office of McKinsey & Company. He led McKinsey’s Financial Institutions Practice in Asia from 2003 to 2008.

Kazutoshi Inano, Vice Chairman and Chairman, Committee on Economic Growth Strategy, Keizai Doyukai; Chairman of the Board of Directors, Nomura Asset Management

Kazutoshi Inano currently serves as vice chairman and chairman of the committee on economic growth strategy at Keizai Doyukai. He is also chairman of the board of directors at Nomura Asset Management.

Ken Takamiya, Executive Director and Head of Financial Team, Equity Research Department, Nomura Securities

Mr. Ken Takamiya joined Nomura Securities in August 2009. At Nomura, he leads Japanese financial sector team (Equity Research Dept.).

Toshihiro Ihori, Professor, University of Tokyo

Toshihiro Ihori teaches public finance and public economics as professor of the Graduate School of Economics at the University of Tokyo since 1997. He is also a member of the National Tax Council and the Fiscal System Council.

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