The Bellwether Series 2012: Japan | Economist Conferences Asia

May 16th 2012

Hotel Okura Tokyo, Japan

The Bellwether Series 2011 brought together over 170 senior executives ranging from leading policymakers, banking executives and regulators, from each of the individual market in Asia-Pacific, China, Japan, Australia and South Korea, to debate on the future of finance in Asia-Pacific. Now in its third year, The Bellwether Series 2012 once again will return to these markets to examine critical opportunities and challenges in Asia-Pacific’s four key financial markets, including Tokyo on May 16th 2012.

The global financial crisis is still hobbling America and Europe. But it left a different legacy in Asia. It was a blow to the region’s economies, but a boost to the region’s pride. Asia’s financial systems proved remarkably resilient; its economic recovery admirably swift.

Many of Asia’s leaders, businesspeople and investors are confident of an “Asian century” ahead. But there is a danger in triumphalism. Asia has its own vulnerabilities and challenges to overcome. Its diverse economies are variously threatened by liquidity traps and middle-income traps; the perils of inflation and deflation. Some need to increase consumption; others to revive investment. All seek to foster innovation and secure their niche in a more elaborate international division of labour.

Moreover, in many Asian countries, the economy has raced ahead of the financial system. The region’s share of global financial assets lags far behind its economic weight in the world, and its financial institutions sometimes struggle to keep up with more demanding savers and more ambitious firms.

The Japan edition of the Bellwether Series will examine the state of the financial system globally and in Asia—now, and over the long term. For Japan’s financial-services industry, what are the opportunities and risks in the shifting landscape, within and outside Japan? The Japan edition will take an intellectually rigorous, global and forward-looking perspective and engage participants on Japan’s evolving financial system.

Dates of each Bellwether Series 2012 event:

Tokyo, Japan – May 16th 2012

Sydney, Australia – July 12th 2012

Seoul, South Korea – September 4th 2012

Beijing, China – November 16th 2012

To review the highlights of The Bellwether Series 2011 in Japan please visit http://www.economistconferences.asia/event/bellwether-series-japan-2011.

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プログラム Please scroll down for English version
8:10 am	受付
8:45 am	開会の辞当会議議長による挨拶と会議を通じた討論の全体像の概説 *The Economist* 東京支局長　ヘンリー・トリックス
9:15 am	ブリーフィング：グローバル金融の動向本セッションでは、グローバル金融・アジアにおける金融の最新動向と今後の展望、そして日本の金融業界への影響について検証を行う。司会：ザ・エコノミスト・グループコーポレートネットワーク日本ディレクターダン・スレーター青山学院大学教授榊原英資メリルリンチ日本証券マネージングディレクター調査部銀行セクター担当アナリスト（株式・クレジット）大槻奈那
9:55 am	欧米、アジア、グローバル？金融規制と中央銀行のあるべき姿金融危機の発生以降、金融分野では規制緩和から新たな規制強化へのシフトがみられる。金融当局の役割は拡大し、そのアプローチもより厳格になりつつあり、ある意味でアジア的な性格が強まっているともいえる。もしアジア的な規制が金融規制のあるべき姿を示唆しているとすれば、新たな危機の発生の回避に向けて他の地域が得るべき教訓とは？新たに浮上している金融規制の英知とは？アジアの中央銀行は、融資ブームと資産バブルを抑制することを主眼としたマクロ健全性葬規制に長年取り組み、経験を培ってきた。こういった取り組みにより､金融業界の活性化や収益性・イノベーション力の向上を促進できるのか? 欧州の規制当局は、資本増強と資産圧縮を域内銀行に求めているが､より大きな忍耐力と寛容性をみせるべきか？銀行に厳格な姿勢で対応することは、金融危機を解決する唯一の方法なのか?あるいは事態を悪化させるだけなのか？銀行の自己資本と流動性に関する新たな規制バーゼルIIIは、2013年から段階的な導入が予定されている。同規制は、アジアの銀行に適したものか？そしてアジアの銀行は新たな規制を受け入れる準備ができているのか？司会：The Economist アジア経済特派員サイモン・コックス BNYメロン CEO インベストメントマネジメントアジアパシフィックアラン・ハーデンフィナンシャル・タイムズ国際金融主席特派員へニー・センダー国際通貨基金ヨーロッパ部門アシスタント・ディレクタースビル・ラル慶応義塾大学経済学部教授、金融庁金融研究研修センター長吉野直行
10:50 am	休憩
11:20 am	チャイナ・インサイト：中国市場の現状と今後かつて日本の経済学者は、アジア経済を雁の群れに例えた。日本を先頭に、他のアジア諸国が群れの後ろに続くという考え方だ。実に、これまでの日本の経験から中国は、様々な教訓を得ることができる。楽観的な関係者は、現在の中国を1970年代の日本になぞらえ、今後10〜20年間は同国経済が急速な成長を続けると予想している。一方、悲観的なグループは、中国を数年後にバブルの崩壊を迎える1980年代の日本と比較している。本セッションでは､中国経済そして市場の現状を検証する。同国のビジネス環境は、日本の金融サービス企業が活躍しやすい環境になってきているのだろうか？中国市場はどのような機会とリスクをもたらすのか? 日本と経済発展：中国は何を学ぶべきなのか？人民元は円に匹敵する、あるいは凌駕する国際通貨となるのか？中国の現状：金融システムの成熟度は？市場ギャップはどの分野にあるのか？司会：*The Economist* アジア経済特派員サイモン・コックス中国農業銀行チーフエコノミスト向松祚中国銀行チーフエコノミスト曹远征ボストンコンサルティンググループパートナー & マネージング・ディレクター鄧俊豪
12:05 pm	昼食
1:20 pm	対談: アジア開発銀行アジアにおける金融の未来像司会：The Economist アジア経済特派員サイモン・コックスアジア開発銀行地域経済統合局長イワン・アジス
2:10 pm	大いなる成長機会の活用：日系銀行の取り組み ~揺れる欧米金融機関と、アジアにおける需要の拡大~ ユーロ危機は日本の金融市場と経済動向にどのような影響を与えるのか？欧米金融機関とバランスシートの縮小：どのような資産が市場に出回るのか？日本の銀行はアジア市場でさらなる成功を収める準備が整っているか？世界におけるM&Aの動向を活用し、企業・顧客価値の向上を実現できるのか? 司会：The Economist 東京支局長ヘンリー・トリックスマッキンゼー＆カンパニー, ディレクター, タブ・バワーズ野村證券エグゼクティブ・ディレクター、エクイティ・リサーチ部金融チーム・ヘッド高宮健
2:50 pm	休憩
3:20 pm	討論: ‘X-day’ を迎えないための財政プラン最近では、日本が ‘X-day’ （不履行に陥る日）を迎える可能性を問う議論から、このリスクをどう回避すべきなのかという問いに焦点がシフトし、当課題は現実性を増してきている。本セッションでは財政エキスパートを招き､財政再建に向けた現行プランの盲点・課題を検証すると共に、デフォルト回避に向けて鍵となる方策について議論する。経済成長：財政再建にどれほどの効果をもたらすことができる要素なのか？歳出削減：今、そして今後取り組むべきこととは？再考：税・社会保障改革財政再建の政治的側面：有効な政策の実現に向けた戦略とは？司会：ザ・エコノミスト・グループコーポレートネットワーク日本ディレクターダン・スレーター元財務副大臣民主党政策調査会長代理・政策審議会長櫻井充自由民主党シャドウ・キャビネット官房副長官林芳正東京大学大学院経済学研究科・経済学部教授井堀利宏
4:10 pm	基調対談：日本再活性化への道筋司会：The Economist 東京支局長ヘンリー・トリックススペシャル・ゲスト：国家戦略担当内閣府特命担当大臣（経済財政政策）古川元久経済同友会副代表幹事、経済成長戦略委員会委員長野村アセットマネジメント取締役会議長稲野和利
4:50 pm	閉会の辞 The Economist アジア経済特派員サイモン・コックスザ・エコノミスト・グループコーポレートネットワーク日本ディレクターダン・スレーター The Economist 東京支局長ヘンリー・トリックス
5:00 pm	カクテルレセプション




Programme

8:10am	Registration
8.45am	Opening remarks The chairperson will give brief scene-setting remarks for the day’s discussions. Henry Tricks, Tokyo Bureau Chief, *The Economist*
9.15am	On the global financial landscape This session focuses on recent developments and what’s ahead in the global and Asian financial landscape with implications for Japan. Eisuke Sakakibara, Professor, Aoyama Gakuin University Nana Otsuki, Managing Director, Global Research, Bank of America Merrill Lynch Moderator: Dan Slater, Director, Corporate Network, Japan, The Economist Group
9.55am	Western, Asian or global? Competing models of financial regulation and central banking Since the financial crisis, the world has shifted from an era of deregulation to a new era of reregulation. The role of the monetary and financial authorities has become more expansive, more intrusive—in many ways, more Asian. If Asian regulation is on the right course, what can the rest of the world learn to avoid another crisis? Asian central banks have long experience with “macro-prudential” measures, designed to tame credit booms and asset bubbles. Are these measures compatible with a vibrant, profitable and innovative financial industry? Europe’s regulators are forcing their banks to raise capital or shed assets. Should regulators show more patience and forbearance? Is getting tough on the banks the only way to solve a financial crisis—or does it only make things worse? New Basel 3 rules on bank capital and liquidity will start coming into force in 2013. Do these rules suit Asian banks, and are they ready? Alan Harden, Chief Executive Officer, Investment Management, Asia-Pacific, BNY Mellon Henny Sender, Chief Correspondent, International Finance, Financial Times Subir Lall, Assistant Director, European Department, International Monetary Fund (IMF) Naoyuki Yoshino, Professor of Economics, Keio University Moderator: Simon Cox, Asia Economics Editor, The Economist
10.50am	Networking break
11.20am	China insight—state of play? A Japanese economist once compared Asia’s economies to a flock of geese, flying in formation: Japan led the way; other Asian economies fanned out behind it. China has the opportunity to learn from Japan’s own flight path. Optimists compare China with Japan in the 1970s, when it still had ten to 20 years of rapid growth ahead of it. Pessimists liken China to Japan in the 1980s, a few years before its bubble burst. The session will evaluate China’s economy, as well as the status of China’s market. Is the business climate becoming warmer for Japan’s financial institutions? What are the risks and opportunities the current state presents? What can China learn from Japan's own experience of development? How is the renminbi evolving as an international currency? Status check: how mature is the financial system; and are there any gaps in the market? Xiang Songzuo, Chief Economist, Agricultural Bank of China Cao Yuanzheng, Chief Economist, Bank of China Tang Tjun, Partner and Managing Director, Boston Consulting Group Moderator: Simon Cox, Asia Economics Editor, The Economist
12.05pm	Luncheon
1.20pm	In conversation with: The Asian Development Bank Looking forward at Asia’s prospects Iwan Azis, Head, Office of Regional Integration, Asian Development Bank (ADB) Moderator: Simon Cox, Asia Economics Editor, The Economist
2.10pm	A time of great opportunity: Japanese banks in action …the retreat of Europe and rising Asian demand How will the euro crisis affect Japan’s financial markets and economic prospects? As European banks trim their balance sheets, what assets might they offer for sale? Are Japanese banks equipped to win in Asia? Can they leverage global M&A ebb and flow, snap up deals and extract value for themselves and their clients? Tab Bowers, Director, Tokyo, McKinsey & Company Ken Takamiya Executive Director and Head of Financial Team, Equity Research Department, Nomura Securities Moderator: Henry Tricks, Tokyo Bureau Chief, The Economist
2.50pm	Networking Break
3.20pm	Debate: Planning against the “X-day” in Japan This session invites financial experts to elicit shortcomings of the current plans for financial restoration, and establish the key steps to ensure that Japan will not default. Growth strategies—how relevant are they? Spending cuts—what more should be done? Tax and social-security reforms—critical reflection Politics of financial restoration—how to push through good policies Mitsuru Sakurai, Former Vice Minister of Finance and Deputy Chairman, Policy Research Committee, Democratic Party of Japan Toshihiro Ihori, Professor, Graduate School of Economics, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo Yoshimasa Hayashi, Deputy Chief Cabinet Secretary, Shadow Cabinet, Liberal Democratic Party of Japan Moderator: Dan Slater, Director, Corporate Network, Japan, The Economist Group
4.10pm	Special feature: Reinvigorating Japan—strategic visions Motohisa Furukawa, Minister for National Policy and Minister of State for Economic and Fiscal Policy, Government of Japan Kazutoshi Inano, Vice Chairman and Chairman, Committee on Economic Growth Strategy, Keizai Doyukai; Chairman of the Board of Directors, Nomura Asset Management Moderator: Henry Tricks, Tokyo Bureau Chief, The Economist
4.50pm	Closing remarks Simon Cox, Asia Economics Editor, *The Economist* Dan Slater, Director, Corporate Network, Japan, The Economist Group Henry Tricks, Tokyo Bureau Chief, *The Economist*
5.00 pm	Cocktail Reception

Simon Cox, Asia Economics Correspondent, The Economist

Simon Cox covers the economies of emerging Asia, including India and China, for The Economist newspaper.

Dan Slater, Director, Corporate Network, Japan, The Economist Group

Dan Slater has spent almost 15 years in Asia covering the region's leading business and economic issues.

Henry Tricks, Tokyo Bureau Chief, The Economist

Henry Tricks is The Economist's bureau chief in Tokyo, covering Japan and North and South Korea.

Motohisa Furukawa, Minister for National Policy and Minister of State for Economic and Fiscal Policy, Government of Japan

Motohisa Furukawa is currently serving as minister for national policy; minister of state for economic and fiscal policy; minister of state for science and technology policy; and minister for space policy.

Eisuke Sakakibara, Professor, Aoyama Gakuin University

Eisuke Sakakibara has been a professor at Aoyama Gakuin University since April 2010. From 1997 to 1999, he was Japan’s vice minister of finance and international affairs.

Iwan J. Azis, Head, Office of Regional Economic Integration, Asian Development Bank

Iwan J. Azis is the Head of the Asian Development Bank’s Office of Regional Economic Integration. He assumed office in September 2010.

Mitsuru Sakurai, Former Vice-Minister of Finance and Deputy Chairman, Policy Research Committee, Democratic Party of Japan

Mitsuru Sakurai currently serves as Deputy Chairman of Policy Research Committee for the Democratic Party of Japan.

Alan Harden, Chief Executive Officer, Investment Management, Asia-Pacific, BNY Mellon

Based in Hong Kong and a member of BNY Mellon Investment Management’s executive committee, Alan Harden is responsible for, strategic, financial and operating plans and business development across Asia-Pacific for BNY Mellon Asset Management.

Subir Lall, Assistant Director, European Department, International Monetary Fund

Subir Lall is Assistant Director in the European Department of the International Monetary Fund, and the Mission Chief for Germany.

Yoshimasa Hayashi, Deputy Chief Cabinet Secretary, Shadow Cabinet, Liberal Democratic Party

Yoshimasa Hayashi currently serves as acting chairman of the Policy Research Council at the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and deputy chief cabinet secretary of the Shadow Cabinet.

Xiang Songzuo, Chief Economist, Agricultural Bank of China

Songzuo Xiang is chief economist at the Agricultural Bank of China. He is also executive deputy director and a senior fellow at the International Monetary Institute of Renmin University of China.

Nana Otsuki, Managing Director, Bank-Sector Analyst, Global Research, Merrill Lynch Japan Securities

Nana Otsuki joined Merrill Lynch Japan Securities in mid-2011, after working as an analyst at UBS for six years.

Cao Yuanzheng, Chief Economist, Bank of China

Cao Yuanzheng is chief economist at Bank of China. Mr Cao joined BOC International (China) in 1998.

Tang Tjun, Partner and Managing Director, Hong Kong, Boston Consulting Group

Tjun Tang is the head of Boston Consulting Group’s financial-institutions practice in Asia. He is an expert in asset management, private banking, custody and securities.

Henny Sender, Chief Correspondent, International Finance, Financial Times

Henny Sender joined the Financial Times in 2007. She is currently the FT’s chief correspondent for international finance and is based in Hong Kong, where she is a permanent resident.

Naoyuki Yoshino, Professor of Economics, Keio University

Naoyuki Yoshino is professor of economics at Keio University. He is also a director of the Institute of Financial Research at Japan’s Financial Services Agency (FSA), a post he has held since 2004.

Tab Bowers, Director, McKinsey & Company

Mr Bowers is a Director in the Tokyo Office of McKinsey & Company. He led McKinsey’s Financial Institutions Practice in Asia from 2003 to 2008.

Kazutoshi Inano, Vice Chairman and Chairman, Committee on Economic Growth Strategy, Keizai Doyukai; Chairman of the Board of Directors, Nomura Asset Management

Kazutoshi Inano currently serves as vice chairman and chairman of the committee on economic growth strategy at Keizai Doyukai. He is also chairman of the board of directors at Nomura Asset Management.

Ken Takamiya, Executive Director and Head of Financial Team, Equity Research Department, Nomura Securities

Mr. Ken Takamiya joined Nomura Securities in August 2009. At Nomura, he leads Japanese financial sector team (Equity Research Dept.).

Toshihiro Ihori, Professor, University of Tokyo

Toshihiro Ihori teaches public finance and public economics as professor of the Graduate School of Economics at the University of Tokyo since 1997. He is also a member of the National Tax Council and the Fiscal System Council.

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