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January 16th 2013
- Sheraton Beijing Dongcheng Hotel, China
The Bellwether Series: China
China’s Economy: How slow should it go?
Finance in China: Growing out of the plan?
Zhu MinDeputy Managing Director
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Justin Yifu LinHonorary President
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The Bellwether Series 2011 brought together over 170 senior executives ranging from leading policymakers, banking executives and regulators, in each of the individual market in Asia-Pacific, China, Japan, Australia and South Korea, to debate on the future of finance in Asia-Pacific. Now in its third year, The Bellwether Series 2012 once again will return to these markets to examine critical opportunities and challenges in Asia-Pacific’s four key financial markets, including China on January 16th 2013.
The global financial crisis is still hobbling America and Europe. But it left a different legacy in Asia. It was a blow to the region’s economies, but a boost to the region’s pride. Asia’s financial systems proved remarkably resilient; its economic recovery admirably swift.
Many of Asia’s leaders, businesspeople and investors are confident of an “Asian century” ahead.
But there is a danger in triumphalism. Asia has its own vulnerabilities and challenges to overcome. Its diverse economies are variously threatened by liquidity traps and middle-income traps; the perils of inflation and deflation. Some need to increase consumption; others to revive investment. All seek to foster innovation and secure their niche in a more elaborate international division of labour.
Moreover, in many Asian countries, the economy has raced ahead of the financial system. The region’s share of global financial assets lags far behind its economic weight in the world, and its financial institutions sometimes struggle to keep up with more demanding savers and more ambitious firms.
The China edition of the Bellwether Series will examine the state of the financial system globally and in Asia—now, and over the long term. For China’s financial-services industry, what are the opportunities and risks in the shifting landscape, within and outside China? The China edition will take an intellectually rigorous, global and forward-looking perspective, engaging participants in an absorbing debate on China’s evolving financial system.
全球金融危机仍然在严重困扰着美国和欧洲。但它给亚洲带来了一种迥异的影响。这次危机既是对该地区经济的一次打击，但也是对该地区骄傲的一次宣扬。危机证明，亚洲的金融体系有着令人瞩目的抵抗力，其经济正以令人钦佩的速度在复苏。
众多的亚洲政府领导人、企业家和投资者都对“亚洲世纪”的到来充满信心。但这种必胜的信念中也存在危险。亚洲有其自身的弱点和挑战需要克服。其多样化的经济正面临各种各样的流动性陷阱和中等收入陷阱的威胁，以及通货膨胀和通货紧缩的风险。一些经济体需要增加消费，其它一些则需要重振投资。所有国家都寻求加强创新，并在一个更精细的国际分工体系中获得其利基定位。
此外，在许多亚洲国家，经济的发展程度已远远领先于金融体系的发展。该地区在全球金融资产中的份额远远落后其在世界经济中的比重，这里的金融机构有时甚至很难恰当响应更苛刻的储户和更加雄心勃勃的企业。
领军者系列峰会之中国会议将探讨全球和亚太金融体系在目前和长期框架下的状态。对于中国的金融服务行业而言，在不断变化的全球格局中，它们在中国境内外将面临哪些机遇和风险？此次中国会议将从理智、严谨、全球性和前瞻性的视角，推动与会者共同探讨中国金融体系的可持续发展。
Dates of each Bellwether Series 2012 event:
Tokyo, Japan – May 16th 2012
Sydney, Australia – July 12th 2012
Seoul, South Korea – September 4th 2012
Beijing, China – January 16th 2013
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Draft programme
(如欲阅览中文版本议程，请按此)
8.45 am | Chairman’s opening remarks |
| Simon Cox, Asia economics editor, The Economist |
9.00 am | Opening keynote |
Zhu Min, Deputy managing director, International Monetary Fund Moderator: | |
9.30 am | Internal threats to China’s economy |
| China has long worried about the composition of its growth, which relies heavily on investment spending. Now it is also worried about the pace of growth, which will struggle to reach 8% this year. This panel will examine how China can revive its growth rate, without worsening its growth mix.
Panellists: Cao Yuanzheng, Chief economist, Bank of China Simon Cox, Asia economics editor, The Economist |
10.15 am | What if…? Scenarios for China |
| What if the euro area broke up? What if America lapsed back into recession? What if the big central banks provoked a new currency war? In this session, we will propose a number of hypothetical scenarios, presented in the form of fictitious news broadcasts. Our panellists will be asked to imagine how they would respond if they were in charge of China’s economy.
Panellists: Ting Lu, China economist, Bank of America Merrill Lynch Moderator: |
11.00 am | Networking break |
11.30 am | China’s financial reform |
| China's financial reforms have moved more slowly over the past 10–15 years than many people hoped. But they have proceeded faster this year than many people expected. The authorities have gradually liberalised China's exchange rate, its interest rates and its capital controls, allowing a greater role for market forces. But is it liberalising these three crucial variables in the right sequence? And is it reforming quickly enough?
Panellists: Moderator: |
12.15 pm | Will China save the world? |
| China boasts the world's biggest foreign-exchange reserves and its second-biggest GDP. It is the world's biggest exporter and absorbs the lion's share of many global commodities. The IMF wants China to buy its notes; Britain wants China to invest in its infrastructure; the euro area wants it to buy its bonds. China has promised $20 billion of loans to Africa and lends more to Latin America than the World Bank and the Inter-American Development Bank combined. America was once described as the "indispensable nation". Has China become the indispensable economy? Panellists: Simon Cox, Asia economics editor, The Economist |
1.05 pm
| Keynote |
Guo Shuqing, Chairman, China Securities Regulatory Commission | |
1.30 pm | Chairman’s closing remarks |
| Simon Cox, Asia economics editor, The Economist |
1.35 pm | Luncheon |
2.35 pm | End of programme |
8.45 am | 主席致开幕辞 |
| 可思梦，《经济学人》亚洲经济编辑 |
9.00 am | 主题演讲 |
| 朱民, 国际货币基金组织 副总裁 主持人： |
9.30 am | 内省： |
| 很久以来中国一直在担心其严重依赖投资的增长结构。现在中国也开始担心增长速度——今年将力争达到8%。本研讨组将探讨的问题是：中国应如何在不恶化其增长结构的情况下重振增长速度？
研讨组嘉宾： 曹远征，首席经济学家，中国银行黄益平, 北京大学国家发展研究院 教授, 巴克莱 （Barclays Capital）首席经济学家 朱夏莲，惠誉评级金融机构部高级董事 朱善利, 应用经济学系教授, 北京大学光华管理学院 主持人： |
10.15 am | 放眼海外： |
| 中国的发展资金已经能自给自足，其经济相比以往任何时候都更加依赖于国内投资和消费。但尽管存在这些优势，中国仍将受到两个最大贸易伙伴(欧洲和美国)当前困境的拖累。 本环节将摒弃传统的做法，不再以含蓄的预测呈现，而是提出种种假设，并尝试回答之。研讨组嘉宾将面对如下情境假设，给出他们各自的模拟“政策响应”。
研讨组嘉宾: 主持人： |
11.00 am | 茶歇 |
11.30 am | 中国的金融改革 |
| 过去10至15年期间，中国金融改革的推进步伐比许多人希望的还要慢。但今年以来，改革步伐却快于很多人都预期。当局已逐步放松对汇率、利率和资本账户的管制，允许市场力量发挥更大作用。但是，中国在以上三个关键领域的改革次序是否恰当？其速度是否已经够快？
研讨组嘉宾： 主持人： |
12.15 pm | 中国将拯救世界吗？ |
| 中国拥有全球规模最大的外汇储备，GDP总额位居全球第二。中国也是全球最大的出口国，并消耗了多种全球性大宗商品的绝大部分。国际货币基金组织希 望中国购买其债券；英国希望中国在英国的基础设施领域投资；欧元区希望中国购买其债券。中国已承诺为非洲提供200亿美元的贷款，并将向拉美提供超过世界 银行和泛美开发银行所提供贷款总额的贷款。
研讨组嘉宾： 可思梦，《经济学人》亚洲经济编辑 |
1.05 pm | 主旨演讲 |
| 郭树清，中国证券监督管理委员会主席 主持人： |
1.30 pm | 主席致闭幕词 |
| 可思梦，《经济学人》亚洲经济编辑 |
1.35 pm | 午宴 |
2.35 pm | 会议结束 |
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Simon Cox, Asia Economics Editor, The Economist
Simon Cox covers the economies of emerging Asia, including India and China, for The Economist newspaper.
Xu Sitao, Director, Global Forecasting, China, Economist Intelligence Unit
Xu Sitao has been chief representative of The Economist Group in China and director of advisory services for Economist Corporate Network in China since 2004.
Vijay Vaitheeswaran, China Business and Finance Editor, Shanghai Bureau Chief, The Economist
Vijay Vaitheeswaran is an award-winning correspondent for The Economist. He opened the magazine’s Shanghai bureau in 2012 and currently serves as China business and finance editor.
Zhu Min, Deputy Managing Director, IMF
Min Zhu is the deputy managing director of the International Monetary Fund. Previously he served as a deputy governor of the People’s Bank of China.
Guo Shuqing, Chairman, China Securities Regulation Commission
Mr. GUO Shuqing has been chairman of China Securities Regulation Commission (CSRC) since November 2011. Before that, Mr. Guo successively served in several important positions in Chinese government.
Justin Yifu Lin, Honorary dean, National School of Development, Peking University
Justin Lin is a professor and honorary dean of the National School of Development at Peking University. He was the senior vice-president and chief economist of the World Bank from 2008 to 2012.
David Dollar, Economic and Financial Emissary to China, US Department of the Treasury
David Dollar has been the US Treasury’s economic and financial emissary to China, based in Beijing, since July 2009.
Liu Ligang, Chief China Economist, ANZ
Li-Gang Liu is chief economist ,Greater China, for ANZ Banking Group in Hong Kong. He covers macroeconomics, foreign exchange, capital markets and strategy research for the bank.
Xiang Songzuo, Chief Economist, Agricultural Bank of China
Songzuo Xiang is chief economist at the Agricultural Bank of China. He is also executive deputy director and a senior fellow at the International Monetary Institute of Renmin University of China
Ting Lu, China Economist, Bank of America, Merrill Lynch
Ting Lu is head of Greater China economics at Bank of America Merrill Lynch Global Research. He is based in Hong Kong.
Cao Yuanzheng, Chief Economist, Bank of China
Cao Yuanzheng is chief economist at Bank of China. Mr Cao joined BOC International (China) in 1998.
Yiping Huang, Chief Economist, Barclays Capital
Yiping Huang is managing director and chief economist for emerging Asia at Barclays.
Ann Costello, Managing Director and Head, Global Government Affairs, BNY Mellon
Ann Costello is a managing director and the head of global government affairs for BNY Mellon.
Yu Yongding, Former Advisor, People’s Bank of China, President, China Society of World Economy, Academician, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS)
Yu Yongding is an academician in the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS) and editor-in-chief of China & World Economy (since 1998).
Zhao Changhui, Chief China Country Risk Analyst, Export-Import Bank of China
Zhao Changhui is a veteran manager at the Export-Import Bank of China (China Eximbank), specialising in China’s national security policy.
Charlene Chu, Senior Director, FitchRatings - China
Charlene Chu is a senior director in the financial institutions group at Fitch Ratings in Beijing.
Zhu Shanli, Department of Applied Economics Professor, Guanghua School of Management, Peking University
Zhu Shanli is a doctoral supervisor and director of the academic committee at the Guanghua School of Management, Peking University.
Liu Qiao, Professor of finance, Assistant Dean, Guanghua school of managemen, Peking University
Qiao Liu is currently assistant dean and a professor of finance at the Guanghua School of Management, Peking University.
Fred Zuilu Hu, Chairman, Primavera Capital Group
Dr. Hu is Chairman and founder of Primavera Capital Group, a China-based global investment firm. He was formerly a partner, managing director and Chairman of Greater China at Goldman Sachs.
Gary Rieschel, Founder & Managing Director, Qiming Venture Partners
Gary Rieschel has held senior executive positions at Intel, Sequent Computer, Cisco Systems and Softbank.
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Contact us today to pre-register your interest to attend The Bellwether Series: China -
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| Category 费用 | Fee (in USD) 美元 |
| Standard rate 标准费用 | $1,000 |
Advance purchase rate (valid till Nov 15th 2012) 提前购票优惠 （有效期至2012年11月15日） | $900 |
2011 Bellwether Series attendee rate 2011年领军者峰会系列参加者 | $900 |
| The Economist subscriber rate 《经济学人》订阅户 | $800 |
| Economist Corporate Network member rate 经济学人企业组织会员 | $750 |
| Academia and government rate 学者及政府官员 | $500 |
Remarks: All registrations are subject to approval by Economist Conferences. Economist Conferences reserves the right to accept and reject registrations at our discretion.
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