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July 12th 2012
- Sheraton on the Park, Sydney, Australia
Now in its third year, The Bellwether Series 2012 once again will return to these markets to examine critical opportunities and challenges in Asia-Pacific’s four key financial markets, including Australia on July 12th 2012.
The global financial crisis is still hobbling America and Europe. But it left a different legacy in Asia-Pacific. It was a blow to the region’s economies, but a boost to the region’s pride. Asia’s financial systems proved remarkably robust; its economic recovery admirably swift. Australia was no exception. Although its housing and credit boom mirrored Western excesses, its resilience during the crisis resembled its Asian neighbours'.
Many of Asia’s leaders, businesspeople and investors are now newly confident of an “Asian century” ahead. That confidence is reflected in bold economic projections about Asia's future weight in the world. It is also manifest in the strength of commodity prices--and the dramatic improvement in Australia's terms of trade.
But there is a danger in triumphalism. Asia-Pacific has its own vulnerabilities and challenges to overcome. Its diverse economies are variously threatened by middle-income traps and liquidity traps; the perils of inflation and deflation. In Australia, mining success has undermined manufacturing competitiveness. Like every other, it must constantly re-examine its place in a more elaborate international division of labour.
In many Asian countries, the economy has raced ahead of the financial system. The region’s share of global financial assets lags far behind its economic weight in the world, and its financial institutions sometimes struggle to keep up with more demanding savers and more ambitious firms.
Australia's financial system is highly sophisticated, but it is not without vulnerabilities of its own, including high household debt, secured against properties that may be overvalued. The recent slowdown in credit growth will help to preserve financial stability, but it will also hurt bank profitability. Some banks may venture overseas in search of richer pickings.
The Australia edition of the Bellwether Series will examine the state of the financial system at home and abroad. For Australia’s financial-services industry, what opportunities and risks does the shifting global landscape present? Are the woes of Europe's banks a threat to international liquidity or an opportunity for others to fill the gaps they leave behind? Will new international regulations on capital, and especially liquidity, hamper Australia's banks or clip the wings of their competitors? And what can the rest of the world learn from Australia's financial resilience? The Australia edition will offer a rigorous and global perspective on the country’s fascinating and evolving financial-services industry.
Dates of each Bellwether Series 2012 event:
Tokyo, Japan – May 16th 2012
Sydney, Australia – July 12th 2012
Seoul, South Korea – September 4th 2012
Beijing, China – November 16th 2012
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Programme
8.45 am
| Opening remarks The chairperson will give scene-setting remarks for the day’s discussions. Moderator: |
9.00 am | The global financial landscape The euro area is teetering on the edge of a precipice. Meanwhile America's recovery is threatened by a so-called "fiscal cliff" of tax hikes and spending cuts. Deeper shifts are also taking place in the financial landscape, as new regulations roll out, and some overstretched financial institutions pull back. This session will examine the implications of these developments for the world, Asia Pacific and Australia. The report from Europe Implications for Asia-Pacific? Implications for Australia? Moderator: |
10.00 am | The retreat of the euro-zone… Central bank perspective: How will the euro crisis affect Asia’s financial markets and economic prospects? Speaker: Panel discussion:
Panellists: Moderator: |
11.10 am | Networking break |
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Since the financial crisis, the world has shifted from an era of deregulation to a new era of reregulation. The role of the monetary and financial authorities has become more expansive, more intrusive—in many ways, more Asian. In dealing with credit booms, asset bubbles and currency volatility, is there a distinctively Asian regulatory philosophy? If so, what can the rest of the world learn from it? And how does Australia's regulatory system compare? Can it find a happy medium between the hands-off approach that got the world into trouble, and heavy-handed regulation that might stifle growth? Panellists: Moderator: |
12.30 pm | Luncheon |
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China is projected to become the world’s biggest economy within a decade, if it manages to avoid a few stumbles along the way. Australia has benefited more than most from China’s progress. But has that left Australia dangerously dependent on China's continued success? This session discusses the many links between Australia and its biggest trade partner.
Panellists: Moderator: |
2.15 pm | Government and markets With an election due in just over a year, Australia’s minority federal government faces a big test of its political survival. Will another global downturn force financial regulation back on the agenda? If so, what will the impact be on Australia’s banks and financial institutions?
Panellists: Moderator: |
3.10 pm | Networking break |
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This session will set aside conventional wisdom and cosy, consensus forecasts to ask some "what ifs". It will examine some low-probability, high-impact scenarios, both good and bad. The question for the panellists is not "Will this scenario happen?" It is: "What would be the consequences if it did?" These are not outcomes anyone necessarily expects, but they are things for which people should nonetheless prepare. The kinds of scenarios that may be considered include:
Panellists: Moderator: |
4.20 pm | In conversation with: Hon Penny Wong, Minister for Finance and Deregulation, Government of Australia Moderator: |
4.50 pm | Chairperson’s closing remarks |
5.00 pm | End programme |
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Simon Cox, Asia Economics Correspondent, The Economist
Simon Cox covers the economies of emerging Asia, including India and China, for The Economist newspaper.
Charles Goddard, Editorial Director, Asia Pacific, Economist Intelligence Unit
Charles Goddard leads the Economist Intelligence Unit’s editorial services in Asia-Pacific, including Corporate Network, a peer group for senior decision-makers of global businesses operating in the region.
Robert Milliken, Australia Correspondent, The Economist
Robert Milliken is the Sydney-based Australia correspondent for The Economist newspaper and Economist.com.
Hon Craig Emerson, Minister for Trade and Competitiveness, Government of Australia
Craig Emerson was elected to parliament in 1998. After the 2010 federal election, he was appointed minister for trade.
Hon Penny Wong, Minister for Finance and Deregulation, Government of Australia
In September 2010 Ms Wong was appointed as minister for finance and deregulation in the Gillard Labor government.
Hon Malcolm Turnbull MP, Shadow Minister for Communications and Broadband, Federal Opposition, Australia
Malcolm Turnbull is a member of the House of Representatives and is currently shadow minister for communications and broadband. He was leader of the opposition from September 2008 to December 2009 and prior to that served as shadow treasurer.
Philip Lowe, Deputy Governor, Reserve Bank of Australia
Philip Lowe is the Deputy Governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia, Deputy Chairman of the Reserve Bank Board and Chairman of the Reserve Bank's Risk Management Committee.
John Laker, Chairman, Australian Prudential Regulatory Authority
John Laker is in his second term as chairman of the Australian Prudential Regulatory Authority (APRA).
Greg Medcraft, Chairman, Australian Securities and Investment Commission
Dave Poddar, Partner, Allen & Overy
Dave Poddar heads the antitrust practice of Allen & Overy in Asia-Pacific. He has more than 20 years’ experience as a competition lawyer specialising in mergers and acquisitions as well as cartel and regulatory competition matters in Australia.
Paul Howes, National Secretary, The Australian Workers' Union
Paul Howes has more than a decade of union activism behind him—as an ordinary union member, a union delegate, working for a peak trade union body and as an official for The Australian Workers’ Union (AWU).
Steven Münchenberg, Chief Executive Officer, Australian Bankers’ Association
Steven Münchenberg has more than 20 years of experience in public policy in the private, public and not-for-profit sectors. He is the chief executive of the Australian Bankers’ Association.
Saugata Bhattacharya, Senior Vice President and Chief Economist, Axis Bank, India
Saugata Bhattacharya is senior vice-president and chief economist at Axis Bank, one of India’s largest private-sector banks.
Art Certosimo, Senior Executive Vice-President and Chief Executive Officer, Global Markets, BNY Mellon
A member of both the executive and the operating committees of BNY Mellon, Art Certosimo is chief executive officer of global markets, leading the company’s foreign-exchange, capital-markets and derivatives-trading businesses worldwide.
Paul Schulte, Former Global Head of Financial Strategy and Asia Banks Research Division, CCB International Securities
Paul Schulte’s career in equity research spans 25 years, covering Asian and emerging markets. He has been frequently ranked in top-five positions in Euromoney, Asiamoney and Institutional Investor.
Paul Bloxham, Chief Economist, Australia, HSBC
Paul Bloxham joined HSBC in 2010 as chief economist for Australia and New Zealand. Prior to this, he spent 12 years as an economist at the Reserve Bank of Australia, where he held a range of different roles in the economics department.
Lee White, Chief Executive Officer, Institute of Chartered Accountants in Australia
Lee White is the chief executive officer of the Institute of Chartered Accountants in Australia.
Stuart Fuller, Global Managing Partner, King & Wood Mallesons
Stuart Fuller is the Global Managing Partner of King & Wood Mallesons. He is based in Hong Kong, with responsibility for the direction, strategy and oversight of the firm.
Brian Redican, Division Director and Senior Economist, Macquarie Bank
Joseph Healy, Group Executive Business Banking, National Australia Bank
oseph Healy joined National Australia Bank in 2007 and is responsible for the bank’s relationships with small, medium and large business clients in Australia and Asia.
Adrian Blundell-Wignall, Deputy Director, Directorate for Financial and Enterprise Affairs, Special Adviser to the Secretary-General on Financial Markets, OECD
Adrian Blundell-Wignall is the special adviser to the secretary-general on financial markets and deputy director in the Directorate for Financial and Enterprise Affairs at the OECD, effective from February 2007.
Michael Johnson, Former Member, Australian Parliament, Chief Executive Officer, Royal Vitamins International
Michael Johnson is CEO of Kokoda Capital Group, a privately owned firm with premium clients and networks in the Asia-Pacific region.
Brinda Jagirdar, Head, Economic Research, State Bank of India
Daniel Gros, Director, The Centre for European Policy Studies
Justin O’Brien, Professor, Faculty of Law, University of New South Wales
Justin O'Brien is a specialist in the dynamics of financial regulation, with particular reference to capital market governance.
Bill Evans, Chief Economist, Westpac
Bill joined Westpac in 1991 in the position of Chief Economist and Head of Research.
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Contact us today to pre-register your interest to attend The Bellwether Series: Australia -
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Remarks: All registrations are subject to approval by Economist Conferences. Economist Conferences reserves the right to accept and reject registrations at our discretion.
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Now in its third year, The Bellwether Series 2012 once again will return to these markets to examine critical opportunities and challenges in Asia-Pacific’s four key financial markets, including Australia.
In 2010 The Economist Group staged the highly successful Bellwether Series in Sydney. We are returning to Australia on August 23rd 2011 for the continuation of the series, bringing together policymakers, regulators and banking and finance executives to examine the shape of finance beyond 2011.
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SPONSORS
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SUPPORTING SPONSORS:
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